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<p>For decades, NATO has served as the cornerstone of Europe’s security. However, Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency has unsettled this foundation and altered the strategic landscape confronting European states. Although NATO still remains the institutional core of Europe’s defense posture, several leading European states—the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Poland—have recently formed bilateral “embedded alliances” within NATO’s framework. This article explains why these arrangements emerged at this historical juncture. It argues that their formation is a result of several interrelated dynamics: internal uncertainty, driven by declining confidence in U.S. alliance reliability amid Trump’s burden-shifting rhetoric and America’s structural reorientation toward Asia; and external pressure, generated by a high-intensity war on Europe’s frontier, the prospect of an unfavorable post-war settlement, and Europe’s fragmented defense-industrial base. Embedded alliances allow European states to hedge against potential U.S. retrenchment, pool resources, coordinate procurement, and rebuild capabilities they can no longer develop individually. Although situated within NATO, these agreements signal a preliminary shift toward a more autonomous European defense policy.</p>

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When NATO isn’t enough: the emergence of Europe’s embedded alliances under Trump 2.0

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Feng Liu,
  • Zhengyang Ma

摘要

For decades, NATO has served as the cornerstone of Europe’s security. However, Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency has unsettled this foundation and altered the strategic landscape confronting European states. Although NATO still remains the institutional core of Europe’s defense posture, several leading European states—the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Poland—have recently formed bilateral “embedded alliances” within NATO’s framework. This article explains why these arrangements emerged at this historical juncture. It argues that their formation is a result of several interrelated dynamics: internal uncertainty, driven by declining confidence in U.S. alliance reliability amid Trump’s burden-shifting rhetoric and America’s structural reorientation toward Asia; and external pressure, generated by a high-intensity war on Europe’s frontier, the prospect of an unfavorable post-war settlement, and Europe’s fragmented defense-industrial base. Embedded alliances allow European states to hedge against potential U.S. retrenchment, pool resources, coordinate procurement, and rebuild capabilities they can no longer develop individually. Although situated within NATO, these agreements signal a preliminary shift toward a more autonomous European defense policy.