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<p>The Technology Cold War primarily characterized by America’s intensifying technological containment against China and China’s countermeasures has been ongoing since the first Trump administration. It is essentially a negative-sum game operating on the logic of balance of loss, where the containing party attempts to inflict massive loss on the contained party while limiting loss to itself. The U.S. technological containment aims to hinder China’s further technological development by restricting technology, market, and capital access. Breaking this containment requires changing the calculation of the balance of loss. China’s response can be summarized as rule-centric, technology-centric, and statecraft-centric approaches. During Trump’s second term and beyond, the Technology Cold War will likely persist, and insights for resolving the current technological rivalry can be derived from the conclusion of arms race. Establishing mutual boundaries once both sides acknowledge the necessity of coexistence would be the most likely outcome.</p>

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Charting the Technology Cold War: the balance of loss, U.S. containment strategies and China’s countermeasures

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月24日

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  • Zhipei Chi

摘要

The Technology Cold War primarily characterized by America’s intensifying technological containment against China and China’s countermeasures has been ongoing since the first Trump administration. It is essentially a negative-sum game operating on the logic of balance of loss, where the containing party attempts to inflict massive loss on the contained party while limiting loss to itself. The U.S. technological containment aims to hinder China’s further technological development by restricting technology, market, and capital access. Breaking this containment requires changing the calculation of the balance of loss. China’s response can be summarized as rule-centric, technology-centric, and statecraft-centric approaches. During Trump’s second term and beyond, the Technology Cold War will likely persist, and insights for resolving the current technological rivalry can be derived from the conclusion of arms race. Establishing mutual boundaries once both sides acknowledge the necessity of coexistence would be the most likely outcome.