<p>This study aims to optimize cryptocurrency portfolio allocation using a systematic, data-driven approach to improve short-term risk-adjusted returns in a high-volatility market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, and Solana are the five main cryptocurrencies for which the study uses daily historical price data from CoinGecko from May 18, 2023, to May 17, 2024. To optimize the Sharpe ratio, a 30-day rebalancing framework and a 360-day rolling window are used. Out-of-sample backtesting is used to compare various portfolio optimization strategies. The optimized portfolio exhibits a more than 25% boost in risk-adjusted returns and routinely beats individual cryptocurrencies in terms of the Sharpe ratio. During market fluctuations, volatility is decreased by 18–30%, and during corrections, drawdowns are kept to a minimum. This study is derived from a one-year dataset, which concentrates on recent market dynamics and short-term portfolio behavior. While this allows for a detailed evaluation of current market conditions, it does not capture various historical market cycles. As a result, the result should be interpreted as context-specific instead of universally applicable. Future research may extend the study to longer time horizons and incorporate additional cryptocurrencies to enhance broader applicability. It intentionally focuses on recent market dynamics to reflect current structural features of the cryptocurrency market. The results are particularly relevant for active investors and short-horizon portfolio strategies. Combining conventional financial models with the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies, this study offers a novel application of rolling Sharpe ratio optimization to cryptocurrency portfolios, advancing portfolio management in digital finance.</p>

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Backtesting portfolio optimization: a 7-model approach to the top 5 cryptocurrencies

  • Supriya Kumari,
  • Pragya Singh

摘要

This study aims to optimize cryptocurrency portfolio allocation using a systematic, data-driven approach to improve short-term risk-adjusted returns in a high-volatility market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, and Solana are the five main cryptocurrencies for which the study uses daily historical price data from CoinGecko from May 18, 2023, to May 17, 2024. To optimize the Sharpe ratio, a 30-day rebalancing framework and a 360-day rolling window are used. Out-of-sample backtesting is used to compare various portfolio optimization strategies. The optimized portfolio exhibits a more than 25% boost in risk-adjusted returns and routinely beats individual cryptocurrencies in terms of the Sharpe ratio. During market fluctuations, volatility is decreased by 18–30%, and during corrections, drawdowns are kept to a minimum. This study is derived from a one-year dataset, which concentrates on recent market dynamics and short-term portfolio behavior. While this allows for a detailed evaluation of current market conditions, it does not capture various historical market cycles. As a result, the result should be interpreted as context-specific instead of universally applicable. Future research may extend the study to longer time horizons and incorporate additional cryptocurrencies to enhance broader applicability. It intentionally focuses on recent market dynamics to reflect current structural features of the cryptocurrency market. The results are particularly relevant for active investors and short-horizon portfolio strategies. Combining conventional financial models with the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies, this study offers a novel application of rolling Sharpe ratio optimization to cryptocurrency portfolios, advancing portfolio management in digital finance.