Impact of trade openness on structural change in BIMSTEC countries
摘要
Structural change refers to the reallocation of economic activity from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing industry, which is crucial for economic development in low-income nations. However, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth is well-documented, but there is a lack of focus on its structural impacts, especially in regional economic blocs like BIMSTEC. To fill-up this gap, this study examines the impact of trade openness on structural change in BIMSTEC countries using 33 years of data from 1991 to 2023. Key independent variables like trade openness, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, employment, and market size significantly impact structural change in BIMSTEC countries. In the long run, trade openness negatively affects structural change, while FDI, exchange rate, and employment positively foster long-term structural transformation. Short-term trade openness positively affects structural change, except in Bangladesh. This contradictory finding of trade openness can be explained by the adjustment costs, Dutch disease effects, or premature deindustrialization. The study suggests that BIMSTEC countries should liberalize trade policies, enhance the investment climate, ensure macroeconomic stability, and invest in infrastructure to speed up structural change.