Revitalising Nigeria’s rubber sector: productivity constraints, value-chain bottlenecks, and policy pathways for sustainable growth
摘要
Nigeria’s rubber sector holds considerable potential to contribute to economic diversification, rural employment, and sustainable industrial development, yet it remains underproductive due to persistent structural and institutional constraints. This study employs a mixed-methods empirical approach to examine the key factors that limit productivity and value chain development in Nigeria’s rubber industry, and to identify evidence-based policy pathways for sector revitalisation. Primary data were collected from 200 smallholder rubber farmers across five major producing states and 30 industry stakeholders, complemented by secondary literature. Quantitative analysis, including regression modelling, was used to identify determinants of rubber productivity, measured as latex output per hectare per year, while qualitative interviews provided institutional and market-level insights. Results indicate that ageing plantations, limited access to credit, weak extension services, and climate variability are the most significant constraints affecting smallholder productivity. Regression results show that access to credit, adoption of high-yielding clones, extension services, and climate-resilient practices are all statistically significant predictors of productivity. Stakeholder perspectives further highlight systemic bottlenecks, including inadequate processing capacity, weak market linkages, and the absence of a coherent national rubber development framework. The study concludes that Nigeria’s rubber sector is constrained not by agro-ecological limitations but by coordination failures across biological rehabilitation, finance, knowledge systems, and institutional governance. Scenario-based analysis suggests that under coordinated policy reform and targeted investment, Nigeria could substantially expand its participation in global natural rubber markets over the medium- to long-term. The findings provide policy-relevant insights for designing integrated strategies to enhance productivity, resilience, and sustainable value chain development.