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<p>Subsidence over abandoned underground coal mines poses a persistent hazard to surface infrastructure and land use, yet subsidence hazard assessments are often fragmented, alternating between empirical screening and advanced numerical modeling, without a consistent and transparent basis for method selection. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a mechanics-informed, decision-based framework, formalized as a workflow flowchart, for subsidence hazard assessment from data compilation through hazard classification and engineering response. The contribution is not the introduction of new individual tools, but the formalization of explicit decision logic that links data quality, expected subsidence mechanism, and consequence context to method selection, escalation, and proportionate engineering action. The workflow integrates (i) historical data review, (ii) site reconnaissance to document surface indicators, (iii) empirical screening with explicit escalation criteria, (iv) targeted geotechnical investigation, and (v) field-constrained numerical analysis, including staged 2D mechanism evaluation followed by 3D simulation, to quantify scenario-based subsidence envelopes. These outputs are synthesized into GIS-based hazard maps with confidence tiers tied to data quality and model sensitivity and are then linked to proportionate engineering controls. By making the escalation and integration logic explicit, the framework is intended to improve traceability, reproducibility, and defensibility relative to less structured practices. The workflow is demonstrated for an abandoned multi-seam coal mine setting, where drilling and laboratory testing confirmed localized roof void development and identified a weak shale unit governing localized subsidence risk. The integrated workflow captured the stabilizing influence of barrier pillars and produced spatially variable subsidence predictions that were translated into a hazard map supporting sensitive infrastructure siting, targeted void verification, and grouting recommendations. The methodology provides a defensible and transferable approach for subsidence hazard assessment over abandoned coal mines by linking subsidence mechanics, uncertainty management, and engineering decision-making within a formal decision framework.</p>

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Framework for Subsidence Hazard Assessment over Abandoned Coal Mines: An Integrated Empirical, Geotechnical, and Numerical Modeling Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Ravi Ray,
  • Ben Haugen,
  • Carolyn McCannon,
  • Michael Ricci

摘要

Subsidence over abandoned underground coal mines poses a persistent hazard to surface infrastructure and land use, yet subsidence hazard assessments are often fragmented, alternating between empirical screening and advanced numerical modeling, without a consistent and transparent basis for method selection. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a mechanics-informed, decision-based framework, formalized as a workflow flowchart, for subsidence hazard assessment from data compilation through hazard classification and engineering response. The contribution is not the introduction of new individual tools, but the formalization of explicit decision logic that links data quality, expected subsidence mechanism, and consequence context to method selection, escalation, and proportionate engineering action. The workflow integrates (i) historical data review, (ii) site reconnaissance to document surface indicators, (iii) empirical screening with explicit escalation criteria, (iv) targeted geotechnical investigation, and (v) field-constrained numerical analysis, including staged 2D mechanism evaluation followed by 3D simulation, to quantify scenario-based subsidence envelopes. These outputs are synthesized into GIS-based hazard maps with confidence tiers tied to data quality and model sensitivity and are then linked to proportionate engineering controls. By making the escalation and integration logic explicit, the framework is intended to improve traceability, reproducibility, and defensibility relative to less structured practices. The workflow is demonstrated for an abandoned multi-seam coal mine setting, where drilling and laboratory testing confirmed localized roof void development and identified a weak shale unit governing localized subsidence risk. The integrated workflow captured the stabilizing influence of barrier pillars and produced spatially variable subsidence predictions that were translated into a hazard map supporting sensitive infrastructure siting, targeted void verification, and grouting recommendations. The methodology provides a defensible and transferable approach for subsidence hazard assessment over abandoned coal mines by linking subsidence mechanics, uncertainty management, and engineering decision-making within a formal decision framework.