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<p>The last remaining German underground hard coal mine was closed in 2018. The closure of these mines has led to significant environmental challenges, including groundwater rebound, mine flooding, and land uplift. As groundwater levels rise, increased pore water pressure (in the fractured rock mass) induces expansion, leading to land uplift. Accurately predicting this uplift is essential for effective preventive measures. However, the complexity of land uplift phenomena necessitates the use of appropriate modeling approaches. This study introduces the system dynamics (SD) approach and its tools (causal loop diagrams (CLD) and stock and flow diagrams (SFD)) to model qualitatively and quantitatively the dynamic interactions between groundwater pumping costs, groundwater levels, and land uplift in surface mining area to achieve the same uplift rate most cost-effectively. The Ruhr District in Germany was selected as a case study to analyze the quantitative behavior of the most influential variables (individual and simultaneous simulation). The developed SD model provides insights into cost-effective solutions for managing land uplift. Simulation results suggest that delaying groundwater pumping after mine closure can be economically beneficial, as the initial years show no significant uplift. However, once uplift begins, timely and optimally regulated pumping rates are crucial to control the rate and magnitude of land uplift. Some scenarios are considered to delay land uplift and decrease long-term pumping costs. For instance, an initial secondary pumping rate of 1 × 10⁶ m<sup>3</sup>/year increased operational costs by approximately 3 × 10⁶ euros over 200 years but reduced land uplift by about 12%. Conversely, delayed pumping with a doubled rate of 2 × 10⁶ m<sup>3</sup>/year resulted in 16% higher costs and a slight decrease in land uplift compared to an immediate, lower-rate intervention. To validate the results, the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) metrics are utilized.</p>

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Dynamic Simulation and Conceptual Interaction Between Groundwater Level, Groundwater Pumping Costs, and Land Uplift in Abandoned Coal Mines in Germany

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月26日

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  • Mir Ahmad Mohammadi

摘要

The last remaining German underground hard coal mine was closed in 2018. The closure of these mines has led to significant environmental challenges, including groundwater rebound, mine flooding, and land uplift. As groundwater levels rise, increased pore water pressure (in the fractured rock mass) induces expansion, leading to land uplift. Accurately predicting this uplift is essential for effective preventive measures. However, the complexity of land uplift phenomena necessitates the use of appropriate modeling approaches. This study introduces the system dynamics (SD) approach and its tools (causal loop diagrams (CLD) and stock and flow diagrams (SFD)) to model qualitatively and quantitatively the dynamic interactions between groundwater pumping costs, groundwater levels, and land uplift in surface mining area to achieve the same uplift rate most cost-effectively. The Ruhr District in Germany was selected as a case study to analyze the quantitative behavior of the most influential variables (individual and simultaneous simulation). The developed SD model provides insights into cost-effective solutions for managing land uplift. Simulation results suggest that delaying groundwater pumping after mine closure can be economically beneficial, as the initial years show no significant uplift. However, once uplift begins, timely and optimally regulated pumping rates are crucial to control the rate and magnitude of land uplift. Some scenarios are considered to delay land uplift and decrease long-term pumping costs. For instance, an initial secondary pumping rate of 1 × 10⁶ m3/year increased operational costs by approximately 3 × 10⁶ euros over 200 years but reduced land uplift by about 12%. Conversely, delayed pumping with a doubled rate of 2 × 10⁶ m3/year resulted in 16% higher costs and a slight decrease in land uplift compared to an immediate, lower-rate intervention. To validate the results, the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) metrics are utilized.