<p>The maximum surface subsidence velocity (MSSV) is a key parameter for the evaluation of the severity of surface movement and deformation caused by coal mining. In this paper, a new model assumption is proposed based on the classical Knothe time model assumption, and an improved Knothe time model, which only contains one model parameter and can accurately describe the dynamic subsidence law of the surface, has been developed. On this basis, according to the extreme value principle, a prediction model of the MSSV was established. The accuracy and rationality of the MSSV prediction model were verified by using the monitoring values of the MSSV caused by the mining of 30 mining areas. The results showed that the predicted value of the MSSV based on the improved Knothe time model is highly consistent with the monitoring values. However, the predicted value of the MSSV based on the Knothe time model differs greatly from the measured value. The comparison results verified the accuracy and rationality of the prediction model of MSSV. From the theoretical expression of the model, it can be seen that the MSSV can be reduced by reducing the coal mining speed, so as to achieve the purpose of reducing damage to surface structures.</p>