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<p>In the current era of energy transition, the emergence of new technologies and increasing energy demand have led to significant changes in the energy sector. In this context, natural gas plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and planning its distribution is essential to achieve efficient results. To address this need, this paper presents a novel approach integrating the geographic information system (GIS) and multicriteria decision-making/aiding (MCDM/A) to develop a decision support system (DSS) for natural gas distribution planning. The study outlines possible projects for extending natural gas distribution networks using a multicriteria model with a benefit-to-cost ratio-based (BCR-based) technique for portfolio selection. The model considers multiple criteria including payback, internal rate of return, demand for natural gas, risk, and cost considerations, to evaluate different investment decisions and identify the optimal solution. In the MCDM/A preference modeling process, the proposed model considers a partial information approach based on the ROC (Rank Order Centroid) surrogate weighting technique, using the swing elicitation procedure to obtain to ranking of criteria weights, which makes the elicitation process less cognitively demanding for decision-makers. The model also considers a decision rule that meets the conditions of the business model of developing natural gas distribution networks. This paper presents an actual portfolio selection case study faced by a Brazilian natural gas distribution company, demonstrating the applicability of the system with the aim of improving and supporting strategic decisions. Results have shown an optimal portfolio of projects obtained consuming 97.38% of the budget while ensuring spatial connectivity and operational feasibility. The robustness of the results was also evaluated within the developed DSS through a sensitivity analysis, corroborating the model's reliability under varying input conditions. This work goes a step further in the field of portfolio selection both from (i) a theoretical perspective, with the development of a new ROC-SWING BCR-based modeling approach for portfolio problems; and (ii) a practical perspective, by addressing a challenging real-world decision-making problem in the field of energy management.</p>

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A GIS-based multicriteria decision support system for natural gas distribution planning

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月1日

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  • Carolina Lino Martins,
  • João Batista Sarmento dos Santos-Neto,
  • Eduarda Asfora Frej,
  • Lucas Borges Leal da Silva,
  • Adiel Teixeira de Almeida

摘要

In the current era of energy transition, the emergence of new technologies and increasing energy demand have led to significant changes in the energy sector. In this context, natural gas plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and planning its distribution is essential to achieve efficient results. To address this need, this paper presents a novel approach integrating the geographic information system (GIS) and multicriteria decision-making/aiding (MCDM/A) to develop a decision support system (DSS) for natural gas distribution planning. The study outlines possible projects for extending natural gas distribution networks using a multicriteria model with a benefit-to-cost ratio-based (BCR-based) technique for portfolio selection. The model considers multiple criteria including payback, internal rate of return, demand for natural gas, risk, and cost considerations, to evaluate different investment decisions and identify the optimal solution. In the MCDM/A preference modeling process, the proposed model considers a partial information approach based on the ROC (Rank Order Centroid) surrogate weighting technique, using the swing elicitation procedure to obtain to ranking of criteria weights, which makes the elicitation process less cognitively demanding for decision-makers. The model also considers a decision rule that meets the conditions of the business model of developing natural gas distribution networks. This paper presents an actual portfolio selection case study faced by a Brazilian natural gas distribution company, demonstrating the applicability of the system with the aim of improving and supporting strategic decisions. Results have shown an optimal portfolio of projects obtained consuming 97.38% of the budget while ensuring spatial connectivity and operational feasibility. The robustness of the results was also evaluated within the developed DSS through a sensitivity analysis, corroborating the model's reliability under varying input conditions. This work goes a step further in the field of portfolio selection both from (i) a theoretical perspective, with the development of a new ROC-SWING BCR-based modeling approach for portfolio problems; and (ii) a practical perspective, by addressing a challenging real-world decision-making problem in the field of energy management.