<p>Flight tests are indispensable for acquiring accurate aerodynamic parameters of reentry capsules under real flight conditions. Precise identification of these parameters is critical for validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and wind tunnel test data, thereby enhancing the accuracy of aerodynamic design. In lunar-to-Earth high-speed reentry scenarios, the complex aerodynamic environment introduces significant uncertainty into predictions. Consequently, providing deviation bands for aerodynamic parameter identification results is essential for ensuring reliable aircraft design. This study systematically investigates aerodynamic parameter estimation methods for high-speed reentry capsules and comprehensively analyzes factors influencing estimation errors. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute error bands for key aerodynamic parameters. The results indicate that measurement uncertainties in atmospheric parameters, accelerations, attitude angles, altitude, and velocity significantly impact estimation accuracy. Specifically, the error bands for trim angle of attack are relatively narrow, while those for lift-drag ratio and aerodynamic coefficients are more substantial at high altitudes due to errors in acceleration and atmospheric density measurements. Uncertainty analysis using modified Cramer-Rao methods for pitch moment derivatives and control forces demonstrates feasibility and reliability. These findings provide a robust foundation for the design and analysis of reentry capsules.</p>