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<p>In the ecologically fragile Himalaya, forest fires pose significant threat to biodiversity, ecosystem stability and human livelihoods particularly in the sub-tropical foothills facing hot and dry summers. We analyzed forest fire patterns in the Rajaji Tiger Reserve (RTR) situated in the foothills of Uttarakhand Himalaya during 2012 to 2024 and evaluated the effectiveness of the fire management interventions in 2024. Our results show that fire incidence exhibited subsatantial interannual variability between 2012 and 2023, with a pronounced peak in 2016. However, in 2024, targeted mitigation in 145 km<sup>2</sup> high-priority zone resulted in only 96 recorded fire incidents, reflecting an estimated 60–62% reduction compared to the 2012–2023 average. Management actions included real-time monitoring, social media alert systems, controlled burns, firebreaks, and community engagement. Poisson regression models were used to assess management effectiveness, with the Seasonal Model providing the best fit. Temperature showed a positive association with fire frequency, while precipitation mitigated this relationship. The intervention variable exhibited a strong negative effect on fire counts across all models, confirming that the 2024 strategy significantly reduced fire activity. These results highlight the importance of incorporating seasonal dynamics into fire management planning. The RTR model demonstrates that combining spatial risk assessment, GIS-based fire density mapping, and community participation can substantially reduce human-induced forest fires. This approach offers a scalable, evidence-based framework for strengthening early warning systems and wildfire prevention strategies across fire-prone regions globally, supporting long-term conservation and climate resilience in Himalayan protected areas.</p>

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Assessment of forest fire frequency in Rajaji National Park, India: implications for fire management strategies

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月8日

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  • Mahatim Yadav,
  • Mriganka Shekhar Sarkar,
  • Suresh Kumar Rana,
  • Ashutosh Tiwari,
  • Saket Badola,
  • Indra D. Bhatt,
  • Sunil Nautiyal

摘要

In the ecologically fragile Himalaya, forest fires pose significant threat to biodiversity, ecosystem stability and human livelihoods particularly in the sub-tropical foothills facing hot and dry summers. We analyzed forest fire patterns in the Rajaji Tiger Reserve (RTR) situated in the foothills of Uttarakhand Himalaya during 2012 to 2024 and evaluated the effectiveness of the fire management interventions in 2024. Our results show that fire incidence exhibited subsatantial interannual variability between 2012 and 2023, with a pronounced peak in 2016. However, in 2024, targeted mitigation in 145 km2 high-priority zone resulted in only 96 recorded fire incidents, reflecting an estimated 60–62% reduction compared to the 2012–2023 average. Management actions included real-time monitoring, social media alert systems, controlled burns, firebreaks, and community engagement. Poisson regression models were used to assess management effectiveness, with the Seasonal Model providing the best fit. Temperature showed a positive association with fire frequency, while precipitation mitigated this relationship. The intervention variable exhibited a strong negative effect on fire counts across all models, confirming that the 2024 strategy significantly reduced fire activity. These results highlight the importance of incorporating seasonal dynamics into fire management planning. The RTR model demonstrates that combining spatial risk assessment, GIS-based fire density mapping, and community participation can substantially reduce human-induced forest fires. This approach offers a scalable, evidence-based framework for strengthening early warning systems and wildfire prevention strategies across fire-prone regions globally, supporting long-term conservation and climate resilience in Himalayan protected areas.