Analysing crop yield variations with respect to climate change in Kodagu District, Western Ghats, India

Climate change is a key concern, along with other environmental, biological, and technological risks encountered by different types of ecosystems globally. The impact of climate variability is evident in tropical regions, specifically in crop yields of rain-fed agroecosystems. To implement efficient adaptation methods, it is crucial to comprehend the relationship between climatic variations and crop yields at smaller levels than national or regional levels. This research tries to analyse the trends in climate variability in Kodagu district and to determine its influence on yields of Oryza sativa (paddy), Zea mays (maize) and Eleusine coracana (ragi) in all three crop seasons. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope method have been used to analyse the trends. The findings indicate that annual precipitation increased between 1997 and 2014. Pearson’s correlation coefficient describes the strength of the relationship between crop yield and climatic variables. Further, a multiple regression model was used to describe the relationship between crop yields and all climatic variables. The results reveal an increase in the productivity of paddy concurrent with increasing rainfall in the kharif season. However, increased minimum temperature exhibits a negative impact on paddy yield during the same period, while it positively influences maize yield. The results reveal the possible influence of climate change on crop yields i.e., paddy, maize and ragi in the Kodagu district. The findings of this study show overall changes in the district’s climatic parameters and their probable association with crop productivity, which is essential for adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction to ensure food security. These results can provide further valuable insights to the policymakers.