Scholarlink

<p>A population projection relies on assumptions that are considered to yield a realistic picture of the population’s probable future development. Six assumptions describe a future population: fertility, mortality, and migration for both men and women. However, in the formal or official female-renewal population projections regularly issued by governments and the United Nations, only women produce births, and the assumption about male fertility rates cannot be utilized. On the other hand, male-renewal population projections can be developed using the same method as that of female renewal, but they are unable to use the assumption about female fertility rates. Both projections impose the one-sex bias. The recently published two-sex renewal population projection could eliminate the bias, and it did so for the G7 countries in the conceptual scenario of constant vital rates and zero migration. To eliminate the bias in realistic scenarios, and with acceptable reasons, is a step from concept to practice. This step is also a challenge because the realistic assumptions about fertility rates are complex. Nevertheless, since women and men produce births jointly, there are reliable relationships between female and male fertility rates. Such a relationship is observed and explained by the two-sex stable population. Utilizing this relationship, assumptions of male and two-sex fertility rates are developed. Consequently, formal population projections can be upgraded from female renewal to two-sex renewal. Based on the male fertility rates and the formal female-renewal population projections of the G7 countries, this paper shows that the formal male-renewal population projection produces profoundly different medium, high, low, and zero-migration scenarios, revealing the one-sex bias in realistic scenarios. This paper also indicates how the two-sex renewal population projection utilizes all six realistic assumptions, upgrades the formal female-renewal population projections to two-sex renewal, and thus eliminates the bias in realistic scenarios. This upgrade does not require projecting two-sex fertility rates from scratch; it is built on efficiently utilizing the sophisticated assumptions of the formal female-renewal population projection and thus can be applied to more countries than just the G7.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Upgrading formal population projections from female renewal to two-sex renewal

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

查看全文
  • Nan Li

摘要

A population projection relies on assumptions that are considered to yield a realistic picture of the population’s probable future development. Six assumptions describe a future population: fertility, mortality, and migration for both men and women. However, in the formal or official female-renewal population projections regularly issued by governments and the United Nations, only women produce births, and the assumption about male fertility rates cannot be utilized. On the other hand, male-renewal population projections can be developed using the same method as that of female renewal, but they are unable to use the assumption about female fertility rates. Both projections impose the one-sex bias. The recently published two-sex renewal population projection could eliminate the bias, and it did so for the G7 countries in the conceptual scenario of constant vital rates and zero migration. To eliminate the bias in realistic scenarios, and with acceptable reasons, is a step from concept to practice. This step is also a challenge because the realistic assumptions about fertility rates are complex. Nevertheless, since women and men produce births jointly, there are reliable relationships between female and male fertility rates. Such a relationship is observed and explained by the two-sex stable population. Utilizing this relationship, assumptions of male and two-sex fertility rates are developed. Consequently, formal population projections can be upgraded from female renewal to two-sex renewal. Based on the male fertility rates and the formal female-renewal population projections of the G7 countries, this paper shows that the formal male-renewal population projection produces profoundly different medium, high, low, and zero-migration scenarios, revealing the one-sex bias in realistic scenarios. This paper also indicates how the two-sex renewal population projection utilizes all six realistic assumptions, upgrades the formal female-renewal population projections to two-sex renewal, and thus eliminates the bias in realistic scenarios. This upgrade does not require projecting two-sex fertility rates from scratch; it is built on efficiently utilizing the sophisticated assumptions of the formal female-renewal population projection and thus can be applied to more countries than just the G7.