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<p>In modern biology, theories of aging are generally divided into two main groups: damage theories (also known as stochastic theories) and programmed theories (also referred to as genetic theories). According to programmed theories, the probability that human beings live beyond a certain age is zero, implying the existence of a biological limit. In contrast, damage theories posit that no such fixed age limit exists, and thus longevity records can continue to be surpassed. Although damage theories have become more prevalent in academic literature, some statistical studies on human longevity have concluded that it is approaching a biological limit. Therefore, more rigorous comparative studies are needed to assess which theory more accurately reflects reality. The recently updated Human Mortality Database facilitates such comparisons by providing detailed mortality data for countries such as South Korea and Japan. In this study, we demonstrate that the estimated upper limits of the lifetime probability distribution for both Japanese and South Korean populations are nearly identical—approximately 120 years—suggesting that this upper limit may be consistent across countries.</p>

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A comparative study of the upper limit of lifetime probability distribution between South Korea and Japan based on data obtained from the Human Mortality Database

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月18日

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  • Nobutane Hanayama,
  • Myung Jin Hwang

摘要

In modern biology, theories of aging are generally divided into two main groups: damage theories (also known as stochastic theories) and programmed theories (also referred to as genetic theories). According to programmed theories, the probability that human beings live beyond a certain age is zero, implying the existence of a biological limit. In contrast, damage theories posit that no such fixed age limit exists, and thus longevity records can continue to be surpassed. Although damage theories have become more prevalent in academic literature, some statistical studies on human longevity have concluded that it is approaching a biological limit. Therefore, more rigorous comparative studies are needed to assess which theory more accurately reflects reality. The recently updated Human Mortality Database facilitates such comparisons by providing detailed mortality data for countries such as South Korea and Japan. In this study, we demonstrate that the estimated upper limits of the lifetime probability distribution for both Japanese and South Korean populations are nearly identical—approximately 120 years—suggesting that this upper limit may be consistent across countries.