Scholarlink

<p>The study addresses South Korea’s fertility prospects, focusing on three key aims. First, it provides empirical evidence of a distinct second fertility transition, contrasting the dynamics of the first phase. Second, it argues in favor of the low-fertility trap hypothesis, offering statistical support for the likelihood of continued decline in future fertility rates, assuming current conditions persist. Finally, it presents probabilistic insights for shaping the government’s pro-natalist policies. Analyzing fertility data from 1960 to 2023 through a Markov switching model, the study reveals two phases: a sharp 17.3% annual decline from 1960 to 1988 and a more gradual 2.5% drop from 1989 onward. The second phase exhibits smaller fluctuations and a 56.3% likelihood of persistence. The study concludes that South Korea’s sustained decline in fertility, ongoing since 1960, is projected to persist into the future. It argues that merely continuing current fertility-focused strategies is insufficient. A more holistic approach is essential—one that aligns with the key factors driving the second fertility transition and prioritizes the well-being of individuals and families. In particular, an approach that addresses broader societal challenges, including work-life balance, gender equity, and reproductive rights, can foster an environment that empowers families to confidently make reproductive choices.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Empirical insights into South Korea’s persistent low fertility and the path forward for pro-natalist policies

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月1日

查看全文
  • Idowu Oluwasayo Ayodeji

摘要

The study addresses South Korea’s fertility prospects, focusing on three key aims. First, it provides empirical evidence of a distinct second fertility transition, contrasting the dynamics of the first phase. Second, it argues in favor of the low-fertility trap hypothesis, offering statistical support for the likelihood of continued decline in future fertility rates, assuming current conditions persist. Finally, it presents probabilistic insights for shaping the government’s pro-natalist policies. Analyzing fertility data from 1960 to 2023 through a Markov switching model, the study reveals two phases: a sharp 17.3% annual decline from 1960 to 1988 and a more gradual 2.5% drop from 1989 onward. The second phase exhibits smaller fluctuations and a 56.3% likelihood of persistence. The study concludes that South Korea’s sustained decline in fertility, ongoing since 1960, is projected to persist into the future. It argues that merely continuing current fertility-focused strategies is insufficient. A more holistic approach is essential—one that aligns with the key factors driving the second fertility transition and prioritizes the well-being of individuals and families. In particular, an approach that addresses broader societal challenges, including work-life balance, gender equity, and reproductive rights, can foster an environment that empowers families to confidently make reproductive choices.