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<p>We use the ProFamy extended cohort-component method/software to project the youth and elderly dependency ratios by rural/urban status, as well as rural/urban-sex-specific total numbers of older adults and those living alone, for 2020–2060 in China. We set up high, medium, and low scenarios for relevant future demographic parameters. Using the 2021–2022 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) dataset, we estimate rural/urban-age-sex-specific prevalence rates of disability in activities of daily life (ADL) for 2020. Based on these estimated disability rates, we set up three scenarios for future disability rates, and combine them with the medium demographic scenario to project rural/urban-sex-specific numbers of older adults with disability in daily life, as well as those living alone with disabilities. We find that in rural areas, the number of older adults, both female and male, decreases after 2040 due to urbanization. In urban areas, the total number of older adults increases by 274.6% for females and 282.3% for males; the number of older adults with disability in daily life increases by 462.6% for females and 450.0% for males; the number of living-alone older adults increases by 310.3% for females and 666.0% for males; and the number of living-alone older adults with disability in daily life increases by 516.2% for females and 1001.9% for males.</p>

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Projections of households, living arrangements, and demand of care needs for disabled older adults in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月25日

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  • Junni Zhang,
  • Zhenglian Wang,
  • Yi Sun,
  • Yi Zeng

摘要

We use the ProFamy extended cohort-component method/software to project the youth and elderly dependency ratios by rural/urban status, as well as rural/urban-sex-specific total numbers of older adults and those living alone, for 2020–2060 in China. We set up high, medium, and low scenarios for relevant future demographic parameters. Using the 2021–2022 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) dataset, we estimate rural/urban-age-sex-specific prevalence rates of disability in activities of daily life (ADL) for 2020. Based on these estimated disability rates, we set up three scenarios for future disability rates, and combine them with the medium demographic scenario to project rural/urban-sex-specific numbers of older adults with disability in daily life, as well as those living alone with disabilities. We find that in rural areas, the number of older adults, both female and male, decreases after 2040 due to urbanization. In urban areas, the total number of older adults increases by 274.6% for females and 282.3% for males; the number of older adults with disability in daily life increases by 462.6% for females and 450.0% for males; the number of living-alone older adults increases by 310.3% for females and 666.0% for males; and the number of living-alone older adults with disability in daily life increases by 516.2% for females and 1001.9% for males.