From tradition to transition: historical trends and projection of female-headed households in Iran

Since the early years of the 21st century, there have been significant changes in family and household formation patterns, indicating a start in transition in Iranian family structures. One sign of this change is the rise in female-headed households (FHHs). This study aims to investigate changes in the number and share of FHHs in Iran from 1984 to 2050. Household Expenditure and Income Survey data were used to examine past trends (1984–2022), and ProFamy software was employed to project future trends from 2020 to 2050. The findings show that a significant increasing trend in the share of FHHs began in 2003, experiencing 93% growth by 2022 (from 8.5 to 16.4). Single-parent households have consistently had the highest share among FHHs, with solo households ranking second. The share of FHHs is expected to reach 21% (more than 7 million) by 2050 based on the middle scenario. Single-parent households will continue to have the largest share until 2025–2030, after which solo households will take the lead. The aging, upward trend in divorce, and generational changes in family values and attitudes will inevitably cause a greater increase in FHHs. Therefore, the government should immediately begin proper planning to effectively address the diverse needs of these households.