Reconstruction of China’s population age and education structure from 2000 to 2020—based on the data from the 5th to 7th national population censuses in China

The study of population dynamics and their socioeconomic implications for a country or region fundamentally relies on continuous and complete demographic data disaggregated by age group and education level. However, limitations inherent in population survey frameworks often impede direct access to such data during non-census years or compromise its reliability. To address this gap, this study, harnessing the data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 national censuses, employs a forward-backward iterative fitting approach utilizing the Discrete Population Equation to enable the reconstruction of age- and education-specific population counts for the years spanning 2000 to 2020. The reconstructed total population figures for non-census years show minimal discrepancy from the adjusted figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, while the reconstructed age-specific population counts have successfully rectified discrepancies present in the officially published age structure demographics. Additionally, the study yields a sequential series of working-age population estimates, disaggregated by education level for individuals aged 15 to 64.