Thirty-year mystery of birth and fertility in China

This manuscript provides a comprehensive analysis of the discrepancies in China’s reported and estimated crude birth rates (CBR) over the thirty years from 1990 to 2020, revealing substantial underreporting influenced by family planning policies and demographic shifts. Utilizing data from National Population Censuses and multiple national surveys, this study highlights how birth numbers, crude birth rates, and fertility rates have been consistently adjusted to align with policy narratives rather than actual demographic data. The findings indicate significant differences between direct calculations, reported figures, subsequent post-census adjustments, and estimations for the reality, reflecting a complex interplay of governmental data management and policy enforcement. By reconstructing the thirty-year trajectory of CBR and fertility in China, this paper offers critical insights into the implications of data accuracy for policy making and demographic analysis. The study concludes that the lack of accurate data over the thirty years and official misjudgments of fertility levels are the most important reasons for the failure to liberalize the fertility policy as early as possible.