Postponement of first marriage and childbearing in China: trends and characteristics

Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in China, and that the postponement of first marriage was noticeably accelerated in 2010–2020. The mean age at first marriage differs across educational attainment, with higher education associated with a delay in marriage. However, from the whole life perspective, men with higher education present a lower likelihood of staying unmarried. The age-specific fertility curve of women of childbearing age in China has shifted downward to the right. The mean age at childbearing has been rising continuously over the study period, with a fast rate at first that slows down. Specifically, all births have experienced an increase in the average age at childbearing during the period of 1990–2020. The improvement of educational attainment plays an important role in postponing women’s childbearing, with variations observed across parities. The delay in first marriage and childbearing varies among different residency statuses and demographic groups, displaying both common patterns and heterogeneity. The study emphasizes the importance of considering first marriage in policy frameworks aimed at promoting fertility-friendly societies.