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<p>Citrus black spot, caused by the fungus <i>Phyllosticta citricarpa</i> (<i>Guignardia citricarpa</i>), is a significant challenge for citrus production worldwide, affecting fruit quality and leading to potential losses in both production and commercialization, especially in markets with high standards. Given its importance to Brazilian citrus farming, understanding the disease’s climatic favorability under future climate scenarios is essential. This study explores the climatic zoning for <i>Phyllosticta citricarpa</i> in Brazil, based on WorldClim 2.1 data and projections from the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, to assess the impact of climate change up to 2100. The study analyzed key agrometeorological variables, including temperature and precipitation, to identify regions with a higher probability of disease occurrence. Using spatial interpolation techniques and geographic analysis, the mapping identified the Federal District and Goiás as highly favorable for disease development, while the state of Amazonas displayed less favorable conditions. Currently, 13.1% of Brazil’s area is classified as highly favorable, 17.8% as favorable, 22.1% as relatively favorable, 2.5% as unfavorable, and 44.5% as uncultivable for citrus black spot. These findings serve as a basis for adopting adaptive management strategies, providing valuable insights into sustaining citrus farming in the context of climate change. The results offer a guide for preventive and mitigation actions against citrus black spot, supporting the citrus industry in adjusting to future climatic challenges.</p>

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Climatic zoning and future projections of citrus black spot in Brazil: adaptive strategies for sustainable citrus farming in the face of climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月31日

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  • Guilherme Botega Torsoni,
  • Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido,
  • Ana Claudia Costa Baratti,
  • Maíra Ferreira de Melo Rossi,
  • Pedro Antonio Lorençone,
  • João Antonio Lorençone

摘要

Citrus black spot, caused by the fungus Phyllosticta citricarpa (Guignardia citricarpa), is a significant challenge for citrus production worldwide, affecting fruit quality and leading to potential losses in both production and commercialization, especially in markets with high standards. Given its importance to Brazilian citrus farming, understanding the disease’s climatic favorability under future climate scenarios is essential. This study explores the climatic zoning for Phyllosticta citricarpa in Brazil, based on WorldClim 2.1 data and projections from the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, to assess the impact of climate change up to 2100. The study analyzed key agrometeorological variables, including temperature and precipitation, to identify regions with a higher probability of disease occurrence. Using spatial interpolation techniques and geographic analysis, the mapping identified the Federal District and Goiás as highly favorable for disease development, while the state of Amazonas displayed less favorable conditions. Currently, 13.1% of Brazil’s area is classified as highly favorable, 17.8% as favorable, 22.1% as relatively favorable, 2.5% as unfavorable, and 44.5% as uncultivable for citrus black spot. These findings serve as a basis for adopting adaptive management strategies, providing valuable insights into sustaining citrus farming in the context of climate change. The results offer a guide for preventive and mitigation actions against citrus black spot, supporting the citrus industry in adjusting to future climatic challenges.