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<p>The Mode I interlaminar fracture toughness (<i>G</i><sub>Ic</sub>) of seawater-aged carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites depends on a delicate balance between opposing hygrothermal aging mechanisms, further influenced by salt-induced effects. This complexity creates a gap in predictive models for post-aging interlaminar properties, hindering the marine application of CFRP composites. To address this challenge, we propose a phenomenological model for quantitatively predicting the <i>G</i><sub>Ic</sub> of CFRP subjected to seawater aging at different concentrations, based on seawater aging and delamination failure mechanisms. Our model predicts <i>G</i><sub>Ic</sub> directly from fundamental material properties, such as equilibrium moisture content and glass transition temperature, and estimates <i>G</i><sub>Ic</sub> scatter bands under different seawater concentrations using Monte Carlo simulations. Validation with computational and experimental data reveals a maximum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.59% and an average MAPE of 4.71%. This model addresses the gap in quantitative prediction methods for <i>G</i><sub>Ic</sub> after seawater aging, providing enhanced mechanistic perspectives and demonstrating clear engineering applicability.</p>

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Predicting mode I interlaminar fracture toughness of seawater-aged CFRP laminates: a phenomenological model with Monte Carlo simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月15日

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  • Jiachen Zhang,
  • Jing Han,
  • Ao Liu,
  • Liwei Wu,
  • Li Chen,
  • Qian Jiang

摘要

The Mode I interlaminar fracture toughness (GIc) of seawater-aged carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites depends on a delicate balance between opposing hygrothermal aging mechanisms, further influenced by salt-induced effects. This complexity creates a gap in predictive models for post-aging interlaminar properties, hindering the marine application of CFRP composites. To address this challenge, we propose a phenomenological model for quantitatively predicting the GIc of CFRP subjected to seawater aging at different concentrations, based on seawater aging and delamination failure mechanisms. Our model predicts GIc directly from fundamental material properties, such as equilibrium moisture content and glass transition temperature, and estimates GIc scatter bands under different seawater concentrations using Monte Carlo simulations. Validation with computational and experimental data reveals a maximum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.59% and an average MAPE of 4.71%. This model addresses the gap in quantitative prediction methods for GIc after seawater aging, providing enhanced mechanistic perspectives and demonstrating clear engineering applicability.