Analysis of solar radiation accuracy using optimized Hargreaves–Samani model in Sabah, Malaysia
摘要
This study employs the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) model to estimate solar radiation in Sabah, Malaysia, focusing on Sandakan, Kota Kinabalu, Keningau, Kudat, and Tawau. Both initial and optimized estimates were calculated, which were achieved by re-optimizing the adjustment coefficient (k) using Python. These regions experience distinct seasonal temperature patterns, with minimum temperatures between 20.7 °C and 28 °C and maximum temperatures ranging from 25.1 °C to 35 °C throughout the year. Measured solar radiation varies significantly, from 0.56 kWh/m2 to peaks above 7.56 kWh/m2, with mid-year generally recording higher values, indicating favorable conditions for photovoltaic power generation. Initial estimated solar radiation ranges from 2.0 to 5.93 kWh/m2. By adjusting the k value to 0.190, the optimized estimates are standardized across Sabah, reducing geographical variation compared to location-specific coefficients. These optimized values demonstrate seasonal fluctuations from 2.27 to 6.75 kWh/m2. Cloud cover exceeding 50% is primarily observed during monsoon seasons, reducing solar radiation. Clear skies with less than 50% cloud cover occur mid-year, enhancing solar availability. Accuracy analysis reveals that Keningau achieved the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (50.072) and a positive Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (0.050), indicating reliable predictions. Conversely, Kudat and Sandakan revealed high RMSE values (162.281 and 141.584) and negative NSE, indicating systematic overestimations. These results highlight the need for localized calibration to improve predictive accuracy and model performance. The findings provide valuable insights for optimizing solar radiation estimates and promoting photovoltaic power generation in Sabah.