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<p>Intensity, duration and frequency (IDF) of rainfall events are probably varying because of increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Design water management infrastructures are directly dependent on rainfall characteristics so reviewing and updating such characteristics (intensity–duration–frequency) is mandatory for future climate scenarios. Thus, an attempt was made to evaluate the probable expected changes in IDF curves in the Barak River from the present and future (projected) climate. Representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPS) i.e. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 formulated by IPCC in the fifth assessment report, AR5 were employed. The IDF analysis was carried out by extracting annual maximum data series for times of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24&#xa0;h and fitted to Gumbel, Log normal and Log Pearson Type III probability distribution function in order to select best fitting distribution function and Log Pearson Type III was found to be appropriate and was used for extrapolating rainfall intensity to generate IDF curves. The goodness of fit of the probability distribution was tested by Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling and Chi-Squared test in Easy Fit software. Thiessen polygon area for all the stations was calculated using ArcGIS to develop an average IDF curve for the entire study area. Finally, an average IDF relationship has been obtained to estimate intensity of rainfall under the present and future climate conditions. Isopluvial maps were developed to show the spatial variation of rainfall intensity for the current climate. The relative differences of rainfall intensity were measured between current and future climate scenarios (2011–2030 and 2031–2050). Outcomes of this study showed that towards less intense rainfall for both the future timelines.</p>

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Projection of IDF curves for the Barak River considering the effect of climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月30日

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  • W. Annayat

摘要

Intensity, duration and frequency (IDF) of rainfall events are probably varying because of increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Design water management infrastructures are directly dependent on rainfall characteristics so reviewing and updating such characteristics (intensity–duration–frequency) is mandatory for future climate scenarios. Thus, an attempt was made to evaluate the probable expected changes in IDF curves in the Barak River from the present and future (projected) climate. Representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPS) i.e. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 formulated by IPCC in the fifth assessment report, AR5 were employed. The IDF analysis was carried out by extracting annual maximum data series for times of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h and fitted to Gumbel, Log normal and Log Pearson Type III probability distribution function in order to select best fitting distribution function and Log Pearson Type III was found to be appropriate and was used for extrapolating rainfall intensity to generate IDF curves. The goodness of fit of the probability distribution was tested by Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling and Chi-Squared test in Easy Fit software. Thiessen polygon area for all the stations was calculated using ArcGIS to develop an average IDF curve for the entire study area. Finally, an average IDF relationship has been obtained to estimate intensity of rainfall under the present and future climate conditions. Isopluvial maps were developed to show the spatial variation of rainfall intensity for the current climate. The relative differences of rainfall intensity were measured between current and future climate scenarios (2011–2030 and 2031–2050). Outcomes of this study showed that towards less intense rainfall for both the future timelines.