Free Pre-K and Non-Marital Childbearing: Examining the Link in Vermont

This paper examines the potential unintended consequence of universal pre-kindergarten (pre-k) programs on non-marital childbearing. We analyze the implementation of Vermont’s Act 166 in 2014, which mandated comprehensive pre-k for all 3–5 year olds, employing difference-in-differences and synthetic control methodologies. We find that the policy has led to an increase in the share of non-marital childbearing among mothers already raising children outside of marriage. Our results suggest that universal pre-k may incentivize unmarried mothers to have additional children due to reduced childcare costs and increased time availability. The findings indicate that implementing universal pre-k has the potential to unintentionally affect family formation decisions and fertility patterns among unmarried mothers.