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<p>This study examined the impact of an extreme event on the Employment-related Gross Domestic Product (EGDP) and focused on the COVID-19 pandemic. We have analyzed the interplay between epidemic spread, vaccination efforts, levels of compliance to non-pharmaceutical protocols, and their economic consequences, and have highlighted how such events can influence a nation’s economic trajectory. We have determined an optimal pair for the vaccination rate, <i>v</i>, and the efficacy level for the non-pharmaceutical measures, <i>u</i> that can maintain a sufficient workforce size that maintains economic growth. The study has recommended <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(v^*\ge 0.6\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msup> <mi>v</mi> <mo>∗</mo> </msup> <mo>≥</mo> <mn>0.6</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(u^*\ge 0.7\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msup> <mi>u</mi> <mo>∗</mo> </msup> <mo>≥</mo> <mn>0.7</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> as optimal ranges for these parameters. Our findings suggest that a dual strategy combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures is the only strategy that can optimize infection control and maintain adequate levels of workforce participation. A single strategy of either a pharmaceutical or a non-pharmaceutical intervention is not sufficient and therefore not recommended, as such a strategy although it can lower the number of infectives fails to clear the infected population, a scenario which can lead to disease recurrence. This study provides a framework for policymakers to mitigate the economic impact of future pandemics through effective intervention strategies.</p>

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Evaluating the Effects of an Extreme Event on the Employment-Related Gross Domestic Product: The COVID-19 Example

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月13日

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  • Paul Kundai Ziwakaya,
  • Edward M. Lungu,
  • Barbara Szomolay

摘要

This study examined the impact of an extreme event on the Employment-related Gross Domestic Product (EGDP) and focused on the COVID-19 pandemic. We have analyzed the interplay between epidemic spread, vaccination efforts, levels of compliance to non-pharmaceutical protocols, and their economic consequences, and have highlighted how such events can influence a nation’s economic trajectory. We have determined an optimal pair for the vaccination rate, v, and the efficacy level for the non-pharmaceutical measures, u that can maintain a sufficient workforce size that maintains economic growth. The study has recommended \(v^*\ge 0.6\) v ∗ ≥ 0.6 and \(u^*\ge 0.7\) u ∗ ≥ 0.7 as optimal ranges for these parameters. Our findings suggest that a dual strategy combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures is the only strategy that can optimize infection control and maintain adequate levels of workforce participation. A single strategy of either a pharmaceutical or a non-pharmaceutical intervention is not sufficient and therefore not recommended, as such a strategy although it can lower the number of infectives fails to clear the infected population, a scenario which can lead to disease recurrence. This study provides a framework for policymakers to mitigate the economic impact of future pandemics through effective intervention strategies.