Spatiotemporal Patterns and Implications of Changing Seasonal Flooding Extents on Wetland Landscapes of a Transboundary Chobe River Basin in Southern Africa

There is a lack of consensus in the literature concerning the trends of seasonal flooding in a transboundary Chobe River Basin (CRB) in Southern Africa. In this paper, we aimed to contribute to the understanding of the seasonal flooding patterns of the CRB and their spatiotemporal implications on the wetland landscape using Shortwave infrared imagery matching the seasonal flood pulses of the Zambezi and Kwando Rivers in the basin. We applied binary thresholding, tasseled cap transformations, and morphological spatial pattern analysis on Landsat images acquired over 35 years between 1988 and 2022. The study’s objectives were to (1) determine how flooding extents have changed temporally in the sub-systems of the CRB, (2) evaluate the implications of changing seasonal flooding extents on wetland flooding connectivity, and (3) assess land–water interactions in the basin using spectral indicators. We established that in contrast to other studies, the annual changes in wetlands flooding extents followed discharge rates of the Zambezi and Kwando Rivers and the regional precipitation. At the same time, the core wetland areas in the CRB showed temporal fragmentation into isolated water patches, with detrimental implications for the overall hydrological connectivity in the basin. On the other hand, the intensification of land use along the Kwando River in Namibia and Botswana also posed to negatively affect the basin’s integrity. Our results, which indicate a long-term evolution of the CRB, can serve as a scientific basis for prioritising the conservation and restoration of the basin.