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<p>This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of climate extremes on the Italian agricultural sector. Utilizing annual time-series data from 1961 to 2023, the research employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework. This methodological approach effectively captures the complex dynamics of environmental shocks that traditional linear models frequently overlook. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship between agricultural production value, temperature, rainfall, and carbon emissions. Notably, the agricultural sector demonstrates a robust short-term adaptive capacity, recovering approximately 61% of climate-related economic disruptions within a single year. However, despite this recovery speed, the long-term coefficient analysis reveals a profound and disproportionate vulnerability to specific climatic extremes: <i>heatwaves</i>,<i> cold snaps</i>,<i> and drought conditions</i> inflict significantly greater negative impacts on agricultural value added than the corresponding economic benefits derived from favorable weather shifts. These results emphasize that Italian agricultural policy must transition from isolated adaptation efforts toward comprehensive climate volatility management. Consequently, the study highlights the critical need for resilient agricultural infrastructure and robust, all-weather mutual insurance programs to safeguard the sector’s long-term economic stability.</p>

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Asymmetric Economic Impacts of Climate Extremes on Italian Agriculture: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Aung Tun Oo

摘要

This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of climate extremes on the Italian agricultural sector. Utilizing annual time-series data from 1961 to 2023, the research employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework. This methodological approach effectively captures the complex dynamics of environmental shocks that traditional linear models frequently overlook. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship between agricultural production value, temperature, rainfall, and carbon emissions. Notably, the agricultural sector demonstrates a robust short-term adaptive capacity, recovering approximately 61% of climate-related economic disruptions within a single year. However, despite this recovery speed, the long-term coefficient analysis reveals a profound and disproportionate vulnerability to specific climatic extremes: heatwaves, cold snaps, and drought conditions inflict significantly greater negative impacts on agricultural value added than the corresponding economic benefits derived from favorable weather shifts. These results emphasize that Italian agricultural policy must transition from isolated adaptation efforts toward comprehensive climate volatility management. Consequently, the study highlights the critical need for resilient agricultural infrastructure and robust, all-weather mutual insurance programs to safeguard the sector’s long-term economic stability.