<p>Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and severity across the United States as climate change lengthens the wildfire season. California has endured a significant number of devastating wildfires in the past decade. Obtaining wildfire insurance in California is growing more and more difficult as the affordability and availability decrease. The objectives of this research are to explore the correlation between the number of wildfires per year in California with the number of insurance renewals by county in both the FAIR (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements) Plan and the voluntary market, and to identify where wildfires have most frequently been occurring through spatial analyses. Kernel density and Getis-Ord Gi Hot Spot analyses were conducted to visualize where wildfires happened most in California from 2014 to 2024. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the number of wildfires each year with insurance renewal rates in both the FAIR plan and the voluntary market. However, the voluntary market appears more responsive to changes in wildfire activity and premium conditions than the FAIR Plan. Los Angeles was found to be the county that suffers from the most wildfires each year. There is generally insignificant correlations between the sociodemographic indicators with the number of insurance renewals in both the FAIR Plan and the voluntary market. This research contributes to the understanding of wildfire risk and frequency patterns and may inform local governments and insurance companies of insurance demand and renewal rate predictions based on the previous wildfire season.</p>

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Analyzing Wildfire Frequency to Identify Spatial Patterns in Insurance Renewal Rates in California, USA from 2014 to 2024

  • Daniel Ulicny,
  • Jing Li,
  • Paul Sutton

摘要

Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and severity across the United States as climate change lengthens the wildfire season. California has endured a significant number of devastating wildfires in the past decade. Obtaining wildfire insurance in California is growing more and more difficult as the affordability and availability decrease. The objectives of this research are to explore the correlation between the number of wildfires per year in California with the number of insurance renewals by county in both the FAIR (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements) Plan and the voluntary market, and to identify where wildfires have most frequently been occurring through spatial analyses. Kernel density and Getis-Ord Gi Hot Spot analyses were conducted to visualize where wildfires happened most in California from 2014 to 2024. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the number of wildfires each year with insurance renewal rates in both the FAIR plan and the voluntary market. However, the voluntary market appears more responsive to changes in wildfire activity and premium conditions than the FAIR Plan. Los Angeles was found to be the county that suffers from the most wildfires each year. There is generally insignificant correlations between the sociodemographic indicators with the number of insurance renewals in both the FAIR Plan and the voluntary market. This research contributes to the understanding of wildfire risk and frequency patterns and may inform local governments and insurance companies of insurance demand and renewal rate predictions based on the previous wildfire season.