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<p>East Africa remains heavily reliant on agriculture, making it particularly vulnerable to economic instability associated with climatic variability, especially fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. This study empirically examines the long-term relationship between climate change variability and food price inflation in East Africa, with a specific focus on temperature and precipitation anomalies. Using balanced panel data from five East African countries spanning the period from 1982 to 2023, the analysis employs a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator within a dynamic panel ARDL framework, alongside Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (GLS) using the Prais-Winsten transformation, to address issues of serial autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and cross-sectional dependence. The findings reveal that below-average precipitation is significantly associated with rising food prices, as it disrupts agricultural output. At the same time, higher-than-normal temperatures are strongly associated with increased food price inflation due to heat stress on crops and reduced yields. These results underscore the structural vulnerability of East African food systems to climate shocks, highlighting the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural and macroeconomic policies to safeguard food affordability and economic stability in the region.</p>

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The Impact of Climate Variability on Food Price Inflation in East Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月19日

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  • Enock Mwakalila

摘要

East Africa remains heavily reliant on agriculture, making it particularly vulnerable to economic instability associated with climatic variability, especially fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. This study empirically examines the long-term relationship between climate change variability and food price inflation in East Africa, with a specific focus on temperature and precipitation anomalies. Using balanced panel data from five East African countries spanning the period from 1982 to 2023, the analysis employs a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator within a dynamic panel ARDL framework, alongside Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (GLS) using the Prais-Winsten transformation, to address issues of serial autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and cross-sectional dependence. The findings reveal that below-average precipitation is significantly associated with rising food prices, as it disrupts agricultural output. At the same time, higher-than-normal temperatures are strongly associated with increased food price inflation due to heat stress on crops and reduced yields. These results underscore the structural vulnerability of East African food systems to climate shocks, highlighting the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural and macroeconomic policies to safeguard food affordability and economic stability in the region.