Scholarlink

<p>This paper investigates the effects of annual temperature-related weather shocks on global harvest production–specifically rice, maize, soybeans, and wheat, which are pivotal for global sustenance. We employ a global VAR–local projections (VAR-LP) framework over the period 1961–2022, with temperature shocks constructed as innovations in annual surface temperature anomalies obtained via a Kalman filter. The empirical results indicate that a one standard deviation temperature shock leads to an immediate decline in harvest production of approximately 0.73%, along with reduced output growth and increased harvest inflation. Harvest production exhibits a heavy right tail, with the top five producers accounting for 62% of global output, highlighting the disproportionate concentration of climate risk in a small number of key countries. This concentration amplifies the vulnerability of major staple crops to rising temperatures and the potential global repercussions of localized temperature shocks.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Does Temperature Variability Affect Global Harvest Production?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月22日

查看全文
  • William Ginn

摘要

This paper investigates the effects of annual temperature-related weather shocks on global harvest production–specifically rice, maize, soybeans, and wheat, which are pivotal for global sustenance. We employ a global VAR–local projections (VAR-LP) framework over the period 1961–2022, with temperature shocks constructed as innovations in annual surface temperature anomalies obtained via a Kalman filter. The empirical results indicate that a one standard deviation temperature shock leads to an immediate decline in harvest production of approximately 0.73%, along with reduced output growth and increased harvest inflation. Harvest production exhibits a heavy right tail, with the top five producers accounting for 62% of global output, highlighting the disproportionate concentration of climate risk in a small number of key countries. This concentration amplifies the vulnerability of major staple crops to rising temperatures and the potential global repercussions of localized temperature shocks.