AIS-Based Framework for Analyzing the Impacts of Passageway Disruptions

Passageways are critical gateways in maritime trade, providing efficient routes for global commerce. Disruptions such as natural disasters in key passageways can threaten global trade. This paper proposes an indicator-based framework for analyzing passageway disruptions using Automated Information System (AIS). This framework enables monitoring of transit operations, voyages and port calls. To demonstrate its potential, we apply the proposed framework to the Panama Canal drought in 2023. Results reveal that the reduction in transit capacity, increased waiting times, and draught limitations have disrupted traditional shipping routes, forcing vessels to seek alternative passageways, thereby increasing travel times and shipping costs. These disruptions have not only affected the efficiency of global trade but have also contributed to economic challenges such as inflation and decreased cargo volumes at major ports.