Technology Use, Maize Productivity, and Weather in West Africa

This paper presents estimates of the association between maize yield and weather using survey data from Ghana, Mali and Nigeria, allowing for the possibility that farmers’ choices about agricultural technology may themselves depend on weather. We find that the association between yield and weather varies substantially according to these choices. We then use our estimates to forecast the change in yield under alternative weather change scenarios. All of these scenarios envisage an increase in temperature, but some envisage a rise in rainfall while others envisage a fall. In almost all scenarios, there is a substantial fall in productivity. In the absence of adaptation measures, weather change is likely to substantially reduce farm income in all three countries.