A probabilistic model for evaluating the operational safety and operational safety analysis by the maximum likelihood method: application on the cameroonian company of petroleum depot of garoua

This article presents an operational safety assessment model and analysis in cases where failure rate and repair rate vary over time, using the maximum likelihood analytical method as a method for estimating reliability parameters and uses Gumbel’s graphic paper for the estimation of maintainability parameters. The proposed approach takes into account both reliability and maintainability analyses, unlike current approaches in the literature which perform either reliability or maintainability analyses. A Weibull law for a reliability study has the advantage of being generalized and can also model, under certain conditions, one of the most frequent cases of distribution of technical repair times, namely the logarithmic normal distribution, which lends itself well to comparison with the laws of extreme values. The hypothesis acceptance test used is the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The application on the equipment of the Cameroonian Company of Petroleum Depots (CCPD) of Garoua is based on a FMEA analysis and provides parameters and curves after operation of the time between failures and technical times to repair (TTR).