Beyond the Paris agreement: How domestic fiscal policy is shaping India’s energy mix
摘要
India’s energy system remains structurally dependent on coal, which continues to account for a dominant share of electricity generation, even as the country has committed to expanding non-fossil energy capacity and reducing the emissions intensity of income. Various fiscal and policy instruments within India, such as the taxation on coal, the phased withdrawal of petrol and diesel price subsidies, and policy support for renewable energy and energy efficiency, target energy use and fuel choice. The paper analyzes the long-run effects of these policies on the shares of fossil fuels within India’s energy structure from 1971 to 2024. Annual time series data is used for different economic and energy variables. The autoregressive distributive lag model is applied to reveal short-run and long-run relationships among variables. Findings show the existence of a non-linear relation between GDP and fossil fuel demand; however, the relation is of an inverted U-shaped pattern. Higher domestic petrol prices, the coal tax, and the times after the Paris Agreement contribute toward lower long-run shares of fossil fuels. Higher coal prices and higher imported coal quantities, however, result in higher fixed shares of fossil fuels. The findings show that fiscal and pricing policies have some but not very significant effects on India’s long-run energy structure change. The findings indicate that even modest carbon-related taxes and subsidy reforms can help reduce fossil fuel reliance in a coal-dependent emerging economy, but that stronger fiscal signals and faster improvements in energy efficiency are necessary to align India’s energy transition with its climate objectives.