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<p>Freshwater salinization is a growing global threat, yet forecasting its trajectory in large lake systems remains a challenge. This study addresses this gap by developing and applying a dynamic mass-balance model to reconstruct and predict chloride (Cl⁻) concentrations in Taihu Lake, China, a large, shallow freshwater system. The total annual Cl⁻ load is quantified at approximately 5.46 × 10⁵ t/yr, with contributions from precipitation, agricultural fertilizers, domestic sewage, and industrial wastewater. Analysis of seven decades of data (1950s-2023) revealed a significant Cl⁻ increase (0.85&#xa0;mg/L/yr), peaking at 72.07&#xa0;mg/L in 2007, followed by a decline. This reversal was not solely due to reduced anthropogenic loads but was critically mediated by an engineered reduction in the lake’s hydraulic residence time. Source apportionment showed a major temporal shift: while precipitation and agricultural sources were dominant historically, domestic sewage has emerged as the primary contemporary source, projected to contribute 30% of the total load by 2035. Despite stringent policies that successfully reduced industrial discharges, the total Cl⁻ load remains elevated (~ 5.46 × 10⁵ t/yr), underscoring the challenge of managing diffuse and urban sources. Meteorological parameters, including precipitation and temperature, influence hydraulic residence time and are considered in the model framework. The mass-balance model was used to project future Cl⁻ concentrations under three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual, (2) successful policy implementation, and (3) policy failure. The projected increase of nearly 38&#xa0;mg/L by 2035 under Scenario 3 is driven by a 50% increase in domestic sewage loads from unabated urban population growth, a 15% decrease in agricultural fertilizer use, and industrial wastewater maintained at 2023 levels. Results demonstrate that proactive management (Scenario 2) can stabilize Cl⁻ levels, while neglect (Scenario 3) could lead to a dangerous increase of nearly 38&#xa0;mg/L. This study provides a transferable framework for predicting salinization dynamics in large lakes worldwide, highlighting the critical interplay of anthropogenic loading and hydrological management as a key determinant of water quality in anthropogenically influenced basins.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This research employs a dynamic mass-balance model to trace and quantify chloride concentrations in a lake ecosystem across seven decades, disentangling the contributions from both natural cycles and escalating anthropogenic sources. The graphical abstract synthesizes this complex history into an accessible visual narrative, charting the profound temporal rise in chloride levels and a critical shift in primary pollution sources, from a historical dominance of industrial wastewater to the contemporary primacy of domestic sewage. It further illustrates the spatial heterogeneity of chloride loading across the lake’s watershed, identifying specific regions as major contributors to the overall load. A key insight visualized is the influential role of hydrological management; the graphic demonstrates how alterations in the lake’s hydraulic residence time can significantly modulate chloride concentrations, effectively decoupling direct load reductions from observed water quality trends. This culminates in the central, urgent message: while continued urbanization and ineffective governance project a trajectory of worsening salinization, proactive and integrated hydrological and policy interventions can stabilize chloride levels. By providing a clear visual pathway through these critical findings, the abstract underscores the necessity of holistic strategies for safeguarding water quality in anthropogenically pressured basins and invites deeper engagement with the complete study.</p>

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Assessing Hydrological Regulation and Anthropogenic Impacts on Chloride Salinization in Taihu Lake Using Mass-Balance Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

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  • Muhammad Adil,
  • Zeng Deying,
  • Xu Gaoying,
  • Deng Yixiang,
  • Yu Tao

摘要

Freshwater salinization is a growing global threat, yet forecasting its trajectory in large lake systems remains a challenge. This study addresses this gap by developing and applying a dynamic mass-balance model to reconstruct and predict chloride (Cl⁻) concentrations in Taihu Lake, China, a large, shallow freshwater system. The total annual Cl⁻ load is quantified at approximately 5.46 × 10⁵ t/yr, with contributions from precipitation, agricultural fertilizers, domestic sewage, and industrial wastewater. Analysis of seven decades of data (1950s-2023) revealed a significant Cl⁻ increase (0.85 mg/L/yr), peaking at 72.07 mg/L in 2007, followed by a decline. This reversal was not solely due to reduced anthropogenic loads but was critically mediated by an engineered reduction in the lake’s hydraulic residence time. Source apportionment showed a major temporal shift: while precipitation and agricultural sources were dominant historically, domestic sewage has emerged as the primary contemporary source, projected to contribute 30% of the total load by 2035. Despite stringent policies that successfully reduced industrial discharges, the total Cl⁻ load remains elevated (~ 5.46 × 10⁵ t/yr), underscoring the challenge of managing diffuse and urban sources. Meteorological parameters, including precipitation and temperature, influence hydraulic residence time and are considered in the model framework. The mass-balance model was used to project future Cl⁻ concentrations under three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual, (2) successful policy implementation, and (3) policy failure. The projected increase of nearly 38 mg/L by 2035 under Scenario 3 is driven by a 50% increase in domestic sewage loads from unabated urban population growth, a 15% decrease in agricultural fertilizer use, and industrial wastewater maintained at 2023 levels. Results demonstrate that proactive management (Scenario 2) can stabilize Cl⁻ levels, while neglect (Scenario 3) could lead to a dangerous increase of nearly 38 mg/L. This study provides a transferable framework for predicting salinization dynamics in large lakes worldwide, highlighting the critical interplay of anthropogenic loading and hydrological management as a key determinant of water quality in anthropogenically influenced basins.

Graphical Abstract

This research employs a dynamic mass-balance model to trace and quantify chloride concentrations in a lake ecosystem across seven decades, disentangling the contributions from both natural cycles and escalating anthropogenic sources. The graphical abstract synthesizes this complex history into an accessible visual narrative, charting the profound temporal rise in chloride levels and a critical shift in primary pollution sources, from a historical dominance of industrial wastewater to the contemporary primacy of domestic sewage. It further illustrates the spatial heterogeneity of chloride loading across the lake’s watershed, identifying specific regions as major contributors to the overall load. A key insight visualized is the influential role of hydrological management; the graphic demonstrates how alterations in the lake’s hydraulic residence time can significantly modulate chloride concentrations, effectively decoupling direct load reductions from observed water quality trends. This culminates in the central, urgent message: while continued urbanization and ineffective governance project a trajectory of worsening salinization, proactive and integrated hydrological and policy interventions can stabilize chloride levels. By providing a clear visual pathway through these critical findings, the abstract underscores the necessity of holistic strategies for safeguarding water quality in anthropogenically pressured basins and invites deeper engagement with the complete study.