<p>There is a global increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme floods driven by climate change, enhanced hydrological variability, and transformations in seasonal moisture accumulation and runoff formation processes. In recent decades, shifts in the temporal and spatial characteristics of spring floods have led to more frequent exceedances of design water levels and increased damage to water management systems, infrastructure, and agriculture. Regions dominated by snow-fed rivers are particularly vulnerable, as imbalances between winter moisture accumulation and spring snowmelt create favorable conditions for extreme flooding. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the factors controlling high spring floods using the Esil River basin as a case study. The analysis is based on long-term hydrometeorological observations combined with climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 ensemble. Key flood-forming drivers considered include autumn soil moisture conditions, soil freezing depth, snow accumulation, spring precipitation, and the synchronicity and intensity of snowmelt processes. To identify critical combinations of climatic and hydrological factors, statistical and factor analyses were applied to construct a matrix of factor interactions reflecting historical patterns of joint influence on extreme flood formation. The results indicate that the most hazardous floods occur when increased autumn soil moisture coincides with deep soil freezing, significant snow accumulation, and rapid spring warming accompanied by intense precipitation. Even under average snow storage conditions, the probability of extreme flooding remains high when soil waterlogging is present and heavy spring precipitation occurs, confirming the nonlinear and multivariate nature of spring flood generation. Based on the identified interaction patterns, a set of baseline flood scenarios was developed. Scenario analysis under the SSP3—7.0 climate pathway suggests an increase in spring air temperatures by 1.5—2.0&#xa0;°C and precipitation by 10—15% by the mid-twenty-first century, leading to higher flood magnitude and frequency. The results highlight increasing climate variability and cyclical water availability, emphasizing the need to adapt water management systems, enhance early warning capabilities, and implement proactive flood risk mitigation measures in snow-fed river basins of northern and central Kazakhstan.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>The graphical abstract illustrates an integrated system for assessing and forecasting spring flood risks in the Esil River basin in conditions of increasing climate variability and growing extremes in hydrological processes. The approach presented is aimed at a comprehensive analysis of the factors contributing to flooding and is based on the combination of diverse data and methods, which improves the reliability of flood risk assessment and forecasting accuracy. The methodological basis of the study includes the use of long-term hydrometeorological observations, snow cover characteristics, temperature regimes during the cold and transitional seasons, data on atmospheric precipitation, as well as information on land use patterns and anthropogenic transformation of the basin territory. The abstract presents a comparison of historically recorded floods and modelled scenarios reflecting possible changes in the flood regime under different climatic conditions. The results obtained emphasise the multifactorial and nonlinear nature of extreme spring floods in basins dominated by snowmelt. The graphic abstract demonstrates the potential of modern monitoring, analysis and modelling methods for improving early warning systems, flood risk management and the development of climate change adaptation measures in river basins fed by meltwater.</p>