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<p>Globally, the productivity of sugarcane is highly sensitive to water availability, which is also affected by climate variability. In Ethiopia, Awash River Basin has large-scale sugarcane production using a surface water source. However, there is a lack of integrated basin-scale assessments linking sugarcane growth with water availability under climate change remains a key gap for sustainable water management. This research investigates the dynamics of sugarcane production and irrigation water availability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) at Wonji using the CMIP6 climate projections and socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This method implements irrigation from channels and Koka reservoir releases to assess projected sugarcane yield, irrigation withdrawal, and water productivity. The SWAT+ model performed well in replicating both sugarcane yield and irrigation use, with a PBIAS (Percent Bias) of 3.5% and R² (coefficient of determination) of 0.7 from the 1999 to 2018 simulation period. Moderate yield reductions are expected under SSP2-4.5 (ranging from − 1.4% to -10.5%), while the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts more significant declines (from − 5.0% to -16.5%), underscoring the crop’s strong sensitivity to higher temperature increases. In the near term, irrigation demand shows only minor changes compared to historical conditions but is projected to rise by approximately 3.4% under SSP2-4.5 and 8.2% under SSP5-8.5. Overall, these findings highlight the need for proactive climate adaptation strategies to support resilient sugarcane production and efficient water management. Recommended strategies include improving irrigation efficiency, optimizing reservoir operation rules, and promoting the adoption of heat-tolerant sugarcane varieties to better cope with future warming conditions.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p> This figure summarizes the study, which investigates the role of the SWAT+ modeling framework in simulating sugarcane productivity and irrigation demand, both historical and future projections. Daily climate data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) for precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity were used in the historical simulation. The dataset from six selected CMIP6 models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) was applied to project climate change impacts, considering the socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The framework integrates geospatial data on landuse, topography, and soil types as model input, while observed stream flow and sugarcane yield data are used in model calibration processes. Decision tables were developed to implement management scenarios, including the Koka reservoir release rule, sugarcane planting and harvesting, and furrow irrigation. Linking irrigation from channels is achieved through the water allocation file. Once the SWAT+ model is calibrated and validated for streamflow, sugarcane yield, and irrigation use, the framework was applied to assess future climate impacts by projecting changes in sugarcane yield, water productivity, and irrigation demand. The results show that both projected sugarcane yield and water productivity indicate a decline in both scenarios, with a higher decline in the far future. The irrigation demand is projected to increase, especially in the far future of the high-emission scenario. This integrated approach allows for a thorough evaluation of the impacts of climate change on large-scale irrigated sugarcane systems. Furthermore, it facilitates informed decision-making regarding water allocation and designing adaptation strategies, including adjusting planting and harvesting dates, optimizing reservoir operations, implementing efficient irrigation methods, and utilizing heat-tolerant varieties of sugarcane.</p>

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Projections of Sugarcane Water Productivity and Irrigation Use Under Climate Change Using CMIP6 and SWAT+

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Rahel Sintayehu Tessema,
  • Belete Berhanu Kidanewolde,
  • Abebe Demissie Chukalla,
  • Ann Van Griensven

摘要

Globally, the productivity of sugarcane is highly sensitive to water availability, which is also affected by climate variability. In Ethiopia, Awash River Basin has large-scale sugarcane production using a surface water source. However, there is a lack of integrated basin-scale assessments linking sugarcane growth with water availability under climate change remains a key gap for sustainable water management. This research investigates the dynamics of sugarcane production and irrigation water availability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) at Wonji using the CMIP6 climate projections and socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This method implements irrigation from channels and Koka reservoir releases to assess projected sugarcane yield, irrigation withdrawal, and water productivity. The SWAT+ model performed well in replicating both sugarcane yield and irrigation use, with a PBIAS (Percent Bias) of 3.5% and R² (coefficient of determination) of 0.7 from the 1999 to 2018 simulation period. Moderate yield reductions are expected under SSP2-4.5 (ranging from − 1.4% to -10.5%), while the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts more significant declines (from − 5.0% to -16.5%), underscoring the crop’s strong sensitivity to higher temperature increases. In the near term, irrigation demand shows only minor changes compared to historical conditions but is projected to rise by approximately 3.4% under SSP2-4.5 and 8.2% under SSP5-8.5. Overall, these findings highlight the need for proactive climate adaptation strategies to support resilient sugarcane production and efficient water management. Recommended strategies include improving irrigation efficiency, optimizing reservoir operation rules, and promoting the adoption of heat-tolerant sugarcane varieties to better cope with future warming conditions.

Graphical Abstract

This figure summarizes the study, which investigates the role of the SWAT+ modeling framework in simulating sugarcane productivity and irrigation demand, both historical and future projections. Daily climate data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) for precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity were used in the historical simulation. The dataset from six selected CMIP6 models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) was applied to project climate change impacts, considering the socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The framework integrates geospatial data on landuse, topography, and soil types as model input, while observed stream flow and sugarcane yield data are used in model calibration processes. Decision tables were developed to implement management scenarios, including the Koka reservoir release rule, sugarcane planting and harvesting, and furrow irrigation. Linking irrigation from channels is achieved through the water allocation file. Once the SWAT+ model is calibrated and validated for streamflow, sugarcane yield, and irrigation use, the framework was applied to assess future climate impacts by projecting changes in sugarcane yield, water productivity, and irrigation demand. The results show that both projected sugarcane yield and water productivity indicate a decline in both scenarios, with a higher decline in the far future. The irrigation demand is projected to increase, especially in the far future of the high-emission scenario. This integrated approach allows for a thorough evaluation of the impacts of climate change on large-scale irrigated sugarcane systems. Furthermore, it facilitates informed decision-making regarding water allocation and designing adaptation strategies, including adjusting planting and harvesting dates, optimizing reservoir operations, implementing efficient irrigation methods, and utilizing heat-tolerant varieties of sugarcane.