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<p>Climate change is increasingly evident through sea-level rise, shoreline erosion, altered rainfall regimes, and intensifying temperature extremes, which pose significant risks to low-lying coastal regions globally. On the southwest coast of India, these interacting processes threaten fragile ecosystems, local livelihoods, and settlement stability. However, integrated assessments that link long-term climate variability with land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics at the local scale remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by analysing hydro-climatic variability, shoreline dynamics, and LULC change in two highly vulnerable coastal villages, Alappad and Arattupuzha, Kerala, India. A multi-source analytical framework was employed, combining 74&#xa0;years of hydro-meteorological data with multi-temporal satellite imagery from 1983 to 2023. Climate variability and extremes were assessed using standardised precipitation and streamflow indices, rainfall variability metrics, and temperature extreme indicators. LULC changes were quantified through the ISO Cluster unsupervised classification algorithm in ArcGIS 10.8.2. Field-based observations contextualised spatial patterns and validated socio-environmental impacts. The results indicate pronounced rainfall variability, with coefficients of variation of 21.42% in Alappad and 20.88% in Arattupuzha, as well as recurrent hydrological extremes. Temperature analyses reveal a clear warning signal, marked by increased occurrences of extreme warm days (Tx90P), rising annual maximum daily temperatures (TXx), and a reduction in cooler temperature events (Tx10P). LULC analysis demonstrates rapid landscape transformations, including extensive conversion of fallow lands and water bodies in Alappad between 1983 and 2003, and a net loss of approximately 5.01&#xa0;ha of built-up areas in Arattupuzha from 2003 to 2023, primarily due to tidal inundation and shoreline retreat. Field investigations further reveal escalating vulnerability of livelihoods to climate-induced coastal hazards. Overall, these findings emphasize the complex interactions among climate variability, shoreline dynamics, and land-use change in shaping societal vulnerability. The study demonstrates the importance of integrating remote sensing, long-term climate data, and field-based evidence to inform climate-resilient coastal planning and adaptive management in highly exposed coastal systems.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>This study introduces an integrated climate–land–livelihood framework designed to assess coastal vulnerability in the low-lying tropical regions of southwest India. By utilizing multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 1983 to 2023, the research quantifies dynamics in land use and land cover while analyzing long-term climatic records to characterize hydro-climatic extremes. Community-based Participatory Rural Appraisal methods, including transect walks, focus group discussions, and household surveys, were employed to gather local insights on climate risks and livelihood stressors. A GIS-based approach was employed to integrate climatic variability and land use/land cover transitions, resulting in spatially explicit vulnerability patterns. The findings reveal an increase in climatic extremes, significant changes in coastal land, and heightened exposure of livelihoods dependent on ecosystems. This study underscores the compounded impacts of climate variability and land-use changes on vulnerable coastal systems, emphasizing the need for nature-based solutions, integrated coastal zone management, and community-driven adaptation strategies to enhance long-term resilience.</p>

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Assessing Climate Variability and Land-Use Change Impacts on Societal Vulnerability Using Remote Sensing and Field-Based Insights in the Alappad Coastal Region, Kerala, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月30日

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  • Degu Zewdu,
  • M. Nitin Kumar,
  • Yila Caiaphas Makadi,
  • Sheikh Omar Fye,
  • S. Sabarinath,
  • Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh,
  • Gamal El Afandi

摘要

Climate change is increasingly evident through sea-level rise, shoreline erosion, altered rainfall regimes, and intensifying temperature extremes, which pose significant risks to low-lying coastal regions globally. On the southwest coast of India, these interacting processes threaten fragile ecosystems, local livelihoods, and settlement stability. However, integrated assessments that link long-term climate variability with land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics at the local scale remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by analysing hydro-climatic variability, shoreline dynamics, and LULC change in two highly vulnerable coastal villages, Alappad and Arattupuzha, Kerala, India. A multi-source analytical framework was employed, combining 74 years of hydro-meteorological data with multi-temporal satellite imagery from 1983 to 2023. Climate variability and extremes were assessed using standardised precipitation and streamflow indices, rainfall variability metrics, and temperature extreme indicators. LULC changes were quantified through the ISO Cluster unsupervised classification algorithm in ArcGIS 10.8.2. Field-based observations contextualised spatial patterns and validated socio-environmental impacts. The results indicate pronounced rainfall variability, with coefficients of variation of 21.42% in Alappad and 20.88% in Arattupuzha, as well as recurrent hydrological extremes. Temperature analyses reveal a clear warning signal, marked by increased occurrences of extreme warm days (Tx90P), rising annual maximum daily temperatures (TXx), and a reduction in cooler temperature events (Tx10P). LULC analysis demonstrates rapid landscape transformations, including extensive conversion of fallow lands and water bodies in Alappad between 1983 and 2003, and a net loss of approximately 5.01 ha of built-up areas in Arattupuzha from 2003 to 2023, primarily due to tidal inundation and shoreline retreat. Field investigations further reveal escalating vulnerability of livelihoods to climate-induced coastal hazards. Overall, these findings emphasize the complex interactions among climate variability, shoreline dynamics, and land-use change in shaping societal vulnerability. The study demonstrates the importance of integrating remote sensing, long-term climate data, and field-based evidence to inform climate-resilient coastal planning and adaptive management in highly exposed coastal systems.

Graphical Abstract

This study introduces an integrated climate–land–livelihood framework designed to assess coastal vulnerability in the low-lying tropical regions of southwest India. By utilizing multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 1983 to 2023, the research quantifies dynamics in land use and land cover while analyzing long-term climatic records to characterize hydro-climatic extremes. Community-based Participatory Rural Appraisal methods, including transect walks, focus group discussions, and household surveys, were employed to gather local insights on climate risks and livelihood stressors. A GIS-based approach was employed to integrate climatic variability and land use/land cover transitions, resulting in spatially explicit vulnerability patterns. The findings reveal an increase in climatic extremes, significant changes in coastal land, and heightened exposure of livelihoods dependent on ecosystems. This study underscores the compounded impacts of climate variability and land-use changes on vulnerable coastal systems, emphasizing the need for nature-based solutions, integrated coastal zone management, and community-driven adaptation strategies to enhance long-term resilience.