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<p>Climate change poses challenges to Brazilian Pinus plantations. <i>Pinus</i> spp. is the second most economically important forest genus for the Brazilian forestry sector, cultivated on approximately 1.93 million hectares. Even with advances in management practices, timber volume and quality may be impacted by climate projections and the occurrence of pests and diseases. Therefore, the development and application of climate risk indicators constitute a strategic tool for quantifying plantation vulnerabilities and anticipating future losses. This study developed fifteen risk indicators, encompassing climate factors and susceptibility to pests and diseases, and applied them under current and future climate conditions. Daily outputs of minimum, mean, and maximum air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global solar radiation from 16 General Circulation Models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) were used. All indicators were simulated for the baseline period (BL; 1995–2014) and projected for the near future (NF; 2041–2060) and far future (FF; 2081–2100) in two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). By the end of the twenty-first century, the greatest risks to Pinus in Brazil (in order of severity) are projected to be: yield loss (~ 84% of the area), tip blight (~ 66%), thermal stress associated with basal temperatures (~ 64%), water deficit (~ 45%), needle blight caused by Calonectria pteridis (~ 53%) and woodwasp (~ 25%) infestations. These findings underscore the need to integrate climate risk into forest planning by adopting adaptive strategies like using drought-tolerant genetics, wider spacing (1,111–1,600 trees per hectare), strengthen control measures for <i>Sphaeropsis sapinea</i>, <i>Calonectria pteridis</i> and <i>Sirex noctilio</i>, and more frequent light thinning.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p> <p>The graphical abstract provides a concise visual synthesis of this study, which assesses climate-related risks to Pinus plantations in Brazil throughout the twenty-first century. The high-resolution dataset used in the analysis was derived from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6), while soil data were obtained from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2). The methodological steps involved the development and application of fifteen climate-based risk indicators related to bioclimatic factors, pests, and diseases, derived from threshold values. All indicators were simulated for the baseline period (1995–2014) and projected for the near future (2041–2060) and far future (2081–2100) under the socioeconomic scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The results reveal spatial patterns of increasing vulnerability across Brazilian Pinus plantations, with elevated risks for yield loss (~ 84% of the area classified as moderate-to-very-high risk), tip blight disease (58–66%), thermal stress associated with elevated basal temperatures (5–64%), needle blight caused by <i>Calonectria pteridis</i> (12–53%), and water deficit (32–45%). The findings indicate that adaptation strategies, such as genotype selection, alternative pest management approaches, and improved silvicultural practices, will be required. Without such measures, the resilience and productivity of Pinus plantations in Brazil may be substantially compromised under future climate conditions.</p>

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Integrated Climate, Pest, and Disease Risk Indicators for Pinus Plantations Under Current and Future Climates

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月21日

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  • Rafael Gonçalves Xavier,
  • Fabrina Bolzan Martins,
  • Cassia Gabriele Dias

摘要

Climate change poses challenges to Brazilian Pinus plantations. Pinus spp. is the second most economically important forest genus for the Brazilian forestry sector, cultivated on approximately 1.93 million hectares. Even with advances in management practices, timber volume and quality may be impacted by climate projections and the occurrence of pests and diseases. Therefore, the development and application of climate risk indicators constitute a strategic tool for quantifying plantation vulnerabilities and anticipating future losses. This study developed fifteen risk indicators, encompassing climate factors and susceptibility to pests and diseases, and applied them under current and future climate conditions. Daily outputs of minimum, mean, and maximum air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global solar radiation from 16 General Circulation Models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) were used. All indicators were simulated for the baseline period (BL; 1995–2014) and projected for the near future (NF; 2041–2060) and far future (FF; 2081–2100) in two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). By the end of the twenty-first century, the greatest risks to Pinus in Brazil (in order of severity) are projected to be: yield loss (~ 84% of the area), tip blight (~ 66%), thermal stress associated with basal temperatures (~ 64%), water deficit (~ 45%), needle blight caused by Calonectria pteridis (~ 53%) and woodwasp (~ 25%) infestations. These findings underscore the need to integrate climate risk into forest planning by adopting adaptive strategies like using drought-tolerant genetics, wider spacing (1,111–1,600 trees per hectare), strengthen control measures for Sphaeropsis sapinea, Calonectria pteridis and Sirex noctilio, and more frequent light thinning.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract provides a concise visual synthesis of this study, which assesses climate-related risks to Pinus plantations in Brazil throughout the twenty-first century. The high-resolution dataset used in the analysis was derived from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6), while soil data were obtained from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2). The methodological steps involved the development and application of fifteen climate-based risk indicators related to bioclimatic factors, pests, and diseases, derived from threshold values. All indicators were simulated for the baseline period (1995–2014) and projected for the near future (2041–2060) and far future (2081–2100) under the socioeconomic scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The results reveal spatial patterns of increasing vulnerability across Brazilian Pinus plantations, with elevated risks for yield loss (~ 84% of the area classified as moderate-to-very-high risk), tip blight disease (58–66%), thermal stress associated with elevated basal temperatures (5–64%), needle blight caused by Calonectria pteridis (12–53%), and water deficit (32–45%). The findings indicate that adaptation strategies, such as genotype selection, alternative pest management approaches, and improved silvicultural practices, will be required. Without such measures, the resilience and productivity of Pinus plantations in Brazil may be substantially compromised under future climate conditions.