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<p>Climate change is reshaping precipitation dynamics in semi-arid regions, increasing the severity and persistence of drought. Although the Mediterranean basin is recognized as a climate change hotspot, high-resolution drought projections that capture topographic complexity remain limited in North Africa. This study evaluates the evolution of meteorological drought in Morocco’s Tensift watershed by integrating PERSIANN-CCS-CDR precipitation with dynamically downscaled MED-CORDEX climate simulations through 2100. An elevation-based bias-correction approach is applied to improve precipitation representation across the watershed’s diverse terrain, selecting the most reliable model for lower and higher elevation zones. Validation against the PERSIANN-CCS-CDR reference dataset indicates a marked improvement in precipitation accuracy after bias correction, including a 25–40% reduction in RMSE and a noticeable decrease in residual bias, enhancing confidence in the corrected datasets used to compute SPI at 3- and 9-month timescales. Future projections show a pronounced intensification of drought frequency, duration, and spatial extent under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with widespread and statistically significant negative SPI trends. Episodic historical droughts shift toward more persistent and spatially coherent drying conditions across the watershed, underscoring emerging pressures on irrigation, groundwater resources, and long-term drought adaptation planning in the Tensift basin.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Evaluation of Precipitation-Based Drought Indices Under Future Climate Change Scenarios: Integration of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and Dynamically Downscaled Regional Climate Models for the Tensift Watershed

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月13日

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  • Adam Najmi,
  • Imane El Bouazzaoui,
  • Brahim Igmoullan,
  • Mustapha Namous,
  • Youssef Bammou,
  • Mustapha Raougua,
  • Yassine Ait Brahim

摘要

Climate change is reshaping precipitation dynamics in semi-arid regions, increasing the severity and persistence of drought. Although the Mediterranean basin is recognized as a climate change hotspot, high-resolution drought projections that capture topographic complexity remain limited in North Africa. This study evaluates the evolution of meteorological drought in Morocco’s Tensift watershed by integrating PERSIANN-CCS-CDR precipitation with dynamically downscaled MED-CORDEX climate simulations through 2100. An elevation-based bias-correction approach is applied to improve precipitation representation across the watershed’s diverse terrain, selecting the most reliable model for lower and higher elevation zones. Validation against the PERSIANN-CCS-CDR reference dataset indicates a marked improvement in precipitation accuracy after bias correction, including a 25–40% reduction in RMSE and a noticeable decrease in residual bias, enhancing confidence in the corrected datasets used to compute SPI at 3- and 9-month timescales. Future projections show a pronounced intensification of drought frequency, duration, and spatial extent under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with widespread and statistically significant negative SPI trends. Episodic historical droughts shift toward more persistent and spatially coherent drying conditions across the watershed, underscoring emerging pressures on irrigation, groundwater resources, and long-term drought adaptation planning in the Tensift basin.

Graphical Abstract