Agricultural lands are vital for producing and securing food for a growing population globally. While the urban areas are rapidly expanding and encroaching on fertile agricultural lands, this may have negative consequences for future food security. This increasing competition for land between urbanization and agriculture highlights the urgent need for sustainable land use planning. Agricultural land suitability (ALS) analysis can assist in developing strategies for improvements in agricultural productivity. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore strategies to increase agricultural production area under the prevailing urban area expansion in a hilly plateau of Punjab, Pakistan, using a hybrid approach based on geospatial techniques and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Urban encroachment on agricultural land was assessed through land cover change analysis from 2017 to 2023 using Sentinel-2 imagery (10 m resolution). Moreover, key environmental, soil, and socio-economic parameters influencing agriculture in hilly areas were identified through expert opinions and literature review for ALS analysis. These influential parameters were ranked, compared pair wisely, and assigned weights using the analytic hierarchy process. Land cover change analysis revealed that 399 km2 of fertile croplands were encroached by built-up areas within six years. A weighted overlay analysis in ArcGIS 10.8 classified 3719 km2 of land as highly suitable, 9809 km2 as moderately suitable, 4069 km2 as marginally suitable, and 4658 km2 as not suitable for agriculture. Moreover, to identify lands that are appropriate for agriculture but remain uncultivated, the ALS map was further refined by deducting the 2023–2024 cultivated area, which was computed using the Google Earth Engine. It was found that 990, 5578, and 3919 km2 of lands were highly to marginally suitable for agriculture, but remained uncultivated. The potential for agricultural development on these lands was assessed, which indicated that these lands can be effectively utilized for productive farming. The accuracy assessment of ALS map revealed an overall accuracy of 89.8% with a kappa coefficient of 86.3%. Thus, integrating geospatial techniques with MCDA for ALS mapping is a swift, reliable, and affordable method. Furthermore, policymakers must subsidize farmers to ease financial burdens to minimize the risk of selling their agricultural lands. Additionally, stringent land-use planning policies are required to prevent urban encroachment on agricultural lands. Graphical Abstract Agricultural lands are essential for producing and securing food for the growing population. This study revealed that 399 km2 of fertile agricultural lands has been encroached by urban areas from 2017 to 2023. To address this issue and to identify areas for agricultural expansion, an agricultural land suitability (ALS) analysis was conducted using ten influential layers. These layers were ranked based on their importance and compared in pair wisely using the analytical hierarchy process. The scores were assigned to each class of the influencing layers based on the literature survey, expert’s opinion, and field observations. The weighted overlay analysis was then performed in the ArcGIS environment to generate ALS map of the study area. The results classified 3719 km2 of lands as highly suitable, 9809 km2 as moderately suitable, 4069 km2 as marginally suitable, and 4658 km2 as not suitable for agriculture. However, identifying lands where agriculture can be expanded is crucial. Therefore, the study incorporates NDVI analysis in Google Earth Engine to assess existing cultivated areas, which were then excluded from the initial ALS map. The findings showed that 6568 km2 of land was moderately to highly suitable for agriculture, but remains uncultivated. These lands can be converted into productive farmlands with proper management practices. Additionally, the study explores opportunities for utilizing these lands for intensive agriculture. The findings have significant implications for securing agricultural lands, ensuring food security, and promoting sustainability in agriculture.

Exploring the New Avenues of Agricultural Development Under Urban Expansion Using Geospatial Techniques in a Hilly Plateau

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发表日期：

2026年1月8日

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Muhammad Sohail Waqas,
Haimanote K. Bayabil,
Muhammad Usman,
Arfan Arshad,
Niguss Solomon Hailegnaw

摘要

Agricultural lands are vital for producing and securing food for a growing population globally. While the urban areas are rapidly expanding and encroaching on fertile agricultural lands, this may have negative consequences for future food security. This increasing competition for land between urbanization and agriculture highlights the urgent need for sustainable land use planning. Agricultural land suitability (ALS) analysis can assist in developing strategies for improvements in agricultural productivity. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore strategies to increase agricultural production area under the prevailing urban area expansion in a hilly plateau of Punjab, Pakistan, using a hybrid approach based on geospatial techniques and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Urban encroachment on agricultural land was assessed through land cover change analysis from 2017 to 2023 using Sentinel-2 imagery (10 m resolution). Moreover, key environmental, soil, and socio-economic parameters influencing agriculture in hilly areas were identified through expert opinions and literature review for ALS analysis. These influential parameters were ranked, compared pair wisely, and assigned weights using the analytic hierarchy process. Land cover change analysis revealed that 399 km² of fertile croplands were encroached by built-up areas within six years. A weighted overlay analysis in ArcGIS 10.8 classified 3719 km² of land as highly suitable, 9809 km² as moderately suitable, 4069 km² as marginally suitable, and 4658 km² as not suitable for agriculture. Moreover, to identify lands that are appropriate for agriculture but remain uncultivated, the ALS map was further refined by deducting the 2023–2024 cultivated area, which was computed using the Google Earth Engine. It was found that 990, 5578, and 3919 km² of lands were highly to marginally suitable for agriculture, but remained uncultivated. The potential for agricultural development on these lands was assessed, which indicated that these lands can be effectively utilized for productive farming. The accuracy assessment of ALS map revealed an overall accuracy of 89.8% with a kappa coefficient of 86.3%. Thus, integrating geospatial techniques with MCDA for ALS mapping is a swift, reliable, and affordable method. Furthermore, policymakers must subsidize farmers to ease financial burdens to minimize the risk of selling their agricultural lands. Additionally, stringent land-use planning policies are required to prevent urban encroachment on agricultural lands.

Graphical Abstract

Agricultural lands are essential for producing and securing food for the growing population. This study revealed that 399 km² of fertile agricultural lands has been encroached by urban areas from 2017 to 2023. To address this issue and to identify areas for agricultural expansion, an agricultural land suitability (ALS) analysis was conducted using ten influential layers. These layers were ranked based on their importance and compared in pair wisely using the analytical hierarchy process. The scores were assigned to each class of the influencing layers based on the literature survey, expert’s opinion, and field observations. The weighted overlay analysis was then performed in the ArcGIS environment to generate ALS map of the study area. The results classified 3719 km² of lands as highly suitable, 9809 km² as moderately suitable, 4069 km² as marginally suitable, and 4658 km² as not suitable for agriculture. However, identifying lands where agriculture can be expanded is crucial. Therefore, the study incorporates NDVI analysis in Google Earth Engine to assess existing cultivated areas, which were then excluded from the initial ALS map. The findings showed that 6568 km² of land was moderately to highly suitable for agriculture, but remains uncultivated. These lands can be converted into productive farmlands with proper management practices. Additionally, the study explores opportunities for utilizing these lands for intensive agriculture. The findings have significant implications for securing agricultural lands, ensuring food security, and promoting sustainability in agriculture.