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<p>This study utilizes Heatwave Intensity-Duration-Frequency (HWIDF) curves to investigate the relationships among intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwave events across six climatic zones in India: Arid, Semiarid, Montane, Humid Subtropical, Tropical Wet, and Tropical Wet &amp; Dry. Using observational data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and MRI-ESM2-0 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we assess changes in heatwave intensities across varying return periods under both anthropogenic and natural conditions. Our analysis reveals that the Arid zone experiences the highest heatwave intensities, with a duration of one to ten days, with maximum and average values of 44.32&#xa0;°C and 36.56&#xa0;°C, respectively, for two-year return periods. Notably, the Humid Subtropical zone shows a significantly increased likelihood of extreme heatwaves compared to other zones, while the Montane zone exhibits a lower likelihood. Furthermore, historical conditions, which include anthropogenic factors, present a higher risk of intense heatwaves over consecutive five- and ten-day periods compared to natural conditions. These findings underscore the influence of human-caused warming on the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves. This study emphasizes the necessity for targeted climate adaptation strategies, particularly in vulnerable zones, to mitigate the impacts of climate change on heatwave characteristics.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>Six climatic zones-Tropical Wet, Tropical Wet and Dry, Humid Subtropical, Semiarid, Arid, and Montane-are assessed in this analysis for heatwave characteristics. Results indicate that throughout all return periods, the Arid zone has the strongest heatwaves, lasting one to five days. Although Semiarid zones outperform it over longer return periods (40-100 years), it also records high intensities for six- to ten-day episodes at shorter return periods (2-30 years). Throughout all durations and return times, the Montane zone continuously displays the lowest intensities. Five- to ten-day heatwave episodes are more intense under historical settings than they are under natural ones, suggesting a significant human influence. Extreme heatwaves are more likely to occur in the humid subtropical zone, whilst the montane zone is still less vulnerable. These trends demonstrate how man-made climate change is increasingly contributing to the occurrence and severity of heatwaves.</p> <p></p>

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Investigating Heatwave Features: Creating an Intensity-Duration-Frequency Model for India’s Principal Climate Zones

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月13日

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  • Priyankar Kumar,
  • Arun Chakraborty,
  • Akshay Kumar Sagar,
  • Mansour Almazroui,
  • Muhammad Mubashar Dogar,
  • Rabin Chakrabortty

摘要

This study utilizes Heatwave Intensity-Duration-Frequency (HWIDF) curves to investigate the relationships among intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwave events across six climatic zones in India: Arid, Semiarid, Montane, Humid Subtropical, Tropical Wet, and Tropical Wet & Dry. Using observational data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and MRI-ESM2-0 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we assess changes in heatwave intensities across varying return periods under both anthropogenic and natural conditions. Our analysis reveals that the Arid zone experiences the highest heatwave intensities, with a duration of one to ten days, with maximum and average values of 44.32 °C and 36.56 °C, respectively, for two-year return periods. Notably, the Humid Subtropical zone shows a significantly increased likelihood of extreme heatwaves compared to other zones, while the Montane zone exhibits a lower likelihood. Furthermore, historical conditions, which include anthropogenic factors, present a higher risk of intense heatwaves over consecutive five- and ten-day periods compared to natural conditions. These findings underscore the influence of human-caused warming on the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves. This study emphasizes the necessity for targeted climate adaptation strategies, particularly in vulnerable zones, to mitigate the impacts of climate change on heatwave characteristics.

Graphical Abstract

Six climatic zones-Tropical Wet, Tropical Wet and Dry, Humid Subtropical, Semiarid, Arid, and Montane-are assessed in this analysis for heatwave characteristics. Results indicate that throughout all return periods, the Arid zone has the strongest heatwaves, lasting one to five days. Although Semiarid zones outperform it over longer return periods (40-100 years), it also records high intensities for six- to ten-day episodes at shorter return periods (2-30 years). Throughout all durations and return times, the Montane zone continuously displays the lowest intensities. Five- to ten-day heatwave episodes are more intense under historical settings than they are under natural ones, suggesting a significant human influence. Extreme heatwaves are more likely to occur in the humid subtropical zone, whilst the montane zone is still less vulnerable. These trends demonstrate how man-made climate change is increasingly contributing to the occurrence and severity of heatwaves.