Meteorological Controls on the June 2020 Landslides of Barak Valley, Southern Assam, NE India
摘要
The Barak Valley districts of Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi in southern Assam forms part of the Tripura-Cachar-Mizoram fold belt in NE India. It receives copious amounts of rainfall from the strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) during the months of June, July, August and September (JJAS) preceded by pre-monsoon rain of variable intensity in April and May. On 2 June 2020, prior to onset of monsoon, a series of small-scale landslides occurred across the districts following a few days of incessant rain causing destruction of properties and death of 21 people. Here we present a correlation of rainfall with these landslide events based on analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded data for the period 1992–2021 and post-disaster investigation of physical site factors. In general, the region is seen to have experienced a significant increase in mean monthly pre-monsoon rainfall followed by peak rainfall in the monsoon months. Propensity for landslides increases as the antecedent rainfall exceeds threshold either during pre-monsoon or monsoon period. With the inherent limitations of data from more case studies, it is proposed that a five-day cumulative rainfall of ~ 121 mm may be tentatively considered as potential landslide initiation threshold in Barak Valley. With a changing rainfall pattern, these thresholds may be exceeded much ahead of onset of the monsoon which needs to be considered for developing a predictive model and overall landslide hazard management in the fold belt region of Barak Valley.