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Abstract <p>Recent studies suggests an increased frequency of Arabian Sea (AS) cyclones during post-monsoon season, causing widespread socio-economic damages. Thus, for the improved prediction of these events, understanding the physical mechanism is important which immensely helps in disaster risk management on the western coast of India. Here, using long-term observational data and climate model perturbation experiments, we show that the post-monsoon AS cyclones are influenced by the variability of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (NASST). NASST significantly reduces vertical wind shear forming a favourable condition for the cyclones to form over the AS. The formation of conditions can be accounted towards alteration in the Walker Circulation. Further, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, we show that the conditions in the NASST driving these responses are exacerbated by the greenhouse gas emission, demonstrating that the contribution of anthropogenic influences to NASST variability in recent times outweighs natural variability. If emissions are not contained with proper mitigation measures, a further increase in NASST may also increase the post-monsoon AS cyclonic activities.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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North Atlantic Forcing on the Post-monsoon Arabian Sea Cyclones

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月18日

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  • Pragnya Pradhan,
  • Riya Dutta,
  • Wei Zhang,
  • Basudev Swain,
  • Akash Koppa,
  • Rohini Kumar,
  • Subhankar Karmakar,
  • Vittal Hari

摘要

Abstract

Recent studies suggests an increased frequency of Arabian Sea (AS) cyclones during post-monsoon season, causing widespread socio-economic damages. Thus, for the improved prediction of these events, understanding the physical mechanism is important which immensely helps in disaster risk management on the western coast of India. Here, using long-term observational data and climate model perturbation experiments, we show that the post-monsoon AS cyclones are influenced by the variability of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (NASST). NASST significantly reduces vertical wind shear forming a favourable condition for the cyclones to form over the AS. The formation of conditions can be accounted towards alteration in the Walker Circulation. Further, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, we show that the conditions in the NASST driving these responses are exacerbated by the greenhouse gas emission, demonstrating that the contribution of anthropogenic influences to NASST variability in recent times outweighs natural variability. If emissions are not contained with proper mitigation measures, a further increase in NASST may also increase the post-monsoon AS cyclonic activities.

Graphical Abstract