This study presents a comprehensive assessment of long-term surface air temperature trends over Oman using ground measurements and ERA5 from 1981 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator was applied to identify trends; results reveal significant nationwide non-uniform warming, with average (Tavg), maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperatures rising by 0.23 ± 0.16 °C decade⁻¹, 0.25 ± 0.16 °C decade⁻¹, and 0.23 ± 0.20 °C decade⁻¹, respectively. Seasonal trends show spring (MAM) warming to be the most rapid, followed closely by autumn (SON), while summer (JJA) exhibits consistent increases across all metrics. Winter (DJF) displays the slowest warming. Decadal intensification is evident post 2000, with 2011–2020 ranking as the warmest decade on record. The frequency and extent of extreme temperature days have increased sharply, driven by a rapid warming trend since the 2000s. Central Oman in the recent decade records over 110 days annually with Tavg >36 °C, while days with Tmax >45 °C and nights with Tmin >30 °C (tropical nights) have more than tripled. Regionally, a strong and consistent warming pattern is evident across northern and central Oman, particularly reflected in Tmax and Tmin trends. Northern Oman experiences the most pronounced and persistent rise in temperature. Central Oman shows notable warming with more variability in some areas. In contrast, southern Oman exhibits relatively weaker trends, with the least warming observed overall. Overall, Oman is warming 1.2–2.3 times faster than the global average but slightly slower than the broader Arabian Peninsula, making it an intermediate yet vulnerable climate hotspot. Graphical Abstract This Study First Validates high-resolution ERA5 Reanalysis Data (1981–2020) against Ground observations. It Then Uses this Validated Dataset To Provide a Comprehensive spatio-temporal Analysis of long-term Temperature Trends and Surface Warming Thresholds across Oman. The Methodological Framework Integrates Statistical Trend Analysis of Decadel and Seasonal Temperature (Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope), Alongside Decadal variations, Anomaly assessments, and Extreme Temperature Events Such as Days with Tavg >36 °C, Tmax >45 °C, and Tropical Nights with Tmin>30 °C. Spatially Explicit Trend Maps and threshold-exceedance Frequency Plots Were Generated Using Python and ArcGIS, with Regional Segmentation into North, Central, and South Oman To Capture Climatic heterogeneity. Results Reveal Significant Nationwide Warming, with Average (Tavg), Maximum (Tmax), and Minimum (Tmin) Temperatures Increasing at Rates of 0.23 °C, 0.25 °C, and 0.23 °C Per Decade, respectively. The Strongest Warming Occurred in Northern Oman, Particularly during Spring (MAM) and Autumn (SON), while Central Regions Showed the Highest Frequency of Extreme Heat Days. Decadal Comparisons Highlight Accelerated Warming post-2000, with 2011–2020 Being the Warmest Decade on record. Oman’s Warming Exceeds the Global Average but Remains Slightly below the Broader Arabian Peninsula Rates. These Findings Underscore the Critical Need for region-specific Climate Adaptation Strategies in Water Resource management, Public health, agriculture, and Energy Planning

Systematic Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Long Term Trends and Surface Warming Thresholds Over Oman

期刊论文
发表日期：

2025年10月17日

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Baiju Dayanandan,
Aon Abbas,
Ajay Parottil ,
Vinoj Velu,
Soumyajyoti Jana,
Ahmed Al Harrasi,
Mohammed Safi Al Kalbani,
Rahma Al Nadhairi,
Humaid AlBadi

摘要

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of long-term surface air temperature trends over Oman using ground measurements and ERA5 from 1981 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator was applied to identify trends; results reveal significant nationwide non-uniform warming, with average (T_avg), maximum (T_max), and minimum (T_min) temperatures rising by 0.23 ± 0.16 °C decade⁻¹, 0.25 ± 0.16 °C decade⁻¹, and 0.23 ± 0.20 °C decade⁻¹, respectively. Seasonal trends show spring (MAM) warming to be the most rapid, followed closely by autumn (SON), while summer (JJA) exhibits consistent increases across all metrics. Winter (DJF) displays the slowest warming. Decadal intensification is evident post 2000, with 2011–2020 ranking as the warmest decade on record. The frequency and extent of extreme temperature days have increased sharply, driven by a rapid warming trend since the 2000s. Central Oman in the recent decade records over 110 days annually with T_avg >36 °C, while days with T_max >45 °C and nights with T_min >30 °C (tropical nights) have more than tripled. Regionally, a strong and consistent warming pattern is evident across northern and central Oman, particularly reflected in T_max and T_min trends. Northern Oman experiences the most pronounced and persistent rise in temperature. Central Oman shows notable warming with more variability in some areas. In contrast, southern Oman exhibits relatively weaker trends, with the least warming observed overall. Overall, Oman is warming 1.2–2.3 times faster than the global average but slightly slower than the broader Arabian Peninsula, making it an intermediate yet vulnerable climate hotspot.

Graphical Abstract

This Study First Validates high-resolution ERA5 Reanalysis Data (1981–2020) against Ground observations. It Then Uses this Validated Dataset To Provide a Comprehensive spatio-temporal Analysis of long-term Temperature Trends and Surface Warming Thresholds across Oman. The Methodological Framework Integrates Statistical Trend Analysis of Decadel and Seasonal Temperature (Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope), Alongside Decadal variations, Anomaly assessments, and Extreme Temperature Events Such as Days with T_avg >36 °C, T_max >45 °C, and Tropical Nights with T_min>30 °C. Spatially Explicit Trend Maps and threshold-exceedance Frequency Plots Were Generated Using Python and ArcGIS, with Regional Segmentation into North, Central, and South Oman To Capture Climatic heterogeneity. Results Reveal Significant Nationwide Warming, with Average (T_avg), Maximum (T_max), and Minimum (T_min) Temperatures Increasing at Rates of 0.23 °C, 0.25 °C, and 0.23 °C Per Decade, respectively. The Strongest Warming Occurred in Northern Oman, Particularly during Spring (MAM) and Autumn (SON), while Central Regions Showed the Highest Frequency of Extreme Heat Days. Decadal Comparisons Highlight Accelerated Warming post-2000, with 2011–2020 Being the Warmest Decade on record. Oman’s Warming Exceeds the Global Average but Remains Slightly below the Broader Arabian Peninsula Rates. These Findings Underscore the Critical Need for region-specific Climate Adaptation Strategies in Water Resource management, Public health, agriculture, and Energy Planning