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Abstract <p>The Peruvian Andes have been experiencing extreme droughts with strong impacts on urban water supply, hydroelectric production, agricultural activities, forest fires, among others. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the characteristics and likely causes of meteorological droughts in the Peruvian Andes to enhance understanding of this phenomenon. To achieve this, two meteorological indexes were calculated: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), using the fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5), validated with <i>in situ</i> data in the study area, and spanning 83 years (1940-2022) at 1 and 12-month time-scales. The Peruvian Andes was divided into six regions. This study found that the western side of the Peruvian Andes is more affected in terms of frequency and intensity of droughts than the eastern side. Moreover, the positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscilation, the positive phases of the El Niño Southern Oscilation (region Niño 4), and negative temperature anomalies in the Tropical South Atlantic are the likely causes of most drought occurrences in the highlands of Peru. In this way, the prediction of these climate variabilities can help in public policies for the prevention and mitigation of the impacts of extreme droughts in the Peruvian Andes.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>This figure illustrates the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Peruvian Andes, as determined by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), at both 1- and 12-month time scales. To better understand the characteristics and drivers of these droughts, SPI and SPEI were calculated using the ERA-5 reanalysis covering the period from 1940 to 2022. The Peruvian Andes was divided into six regions, as shown in this figure. The main results reveal that the frequency and intensity of droughts exhibit temporal variability throughout the study period, being stronger in the western side than in the eastern side of the Peruvian Andes. Moreover, positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, positive phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (region of Niño 4), and negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical South Atlantic are likely causes of most drought occurrences in the Peruvian highlands.</p>

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Meteorological Droughts in the Peruvian Andes: Characteristics and Relationships with Climate Variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月6日

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  • David Pareja-Quispe,
  • Paulo Rodrigo Zanin,
  • João Maria de Sousa Afonso

摘要

Abstract

The Peruvian Andes have been experiencing extreme droughts with strong impacts on urban water supply, hydroelectric production, agricultural activities, forest fires, among others. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the characteristics and likely causes of meteorological droughts in the Peruvian Andes to enhance understanding of this phenomenon. To achieve this, two meteorological indexes were calculated: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), using the fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5), validated with in situ data in the study area, and spanning 83 years (1940-2022) at 1 and 12-month time-scales. The Peruvian Andes was divided into six regions. This study found that the western side of the Peruvian Andes is more affected in terms of frequency and intensity of droughts than the eastern side. Moreover, the positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscilation, the positive phases of the El Niño Southern Oscilation (region Niño 4), and negative temperature anomalies in the Tropical South Atlantic are the likely causes of most drought occurrences in the highlands of Peru. In this way, the prediction of these climate variabilities can help in public policies for the prevention and mitigation of the impacts of extreme droughts in the Peruvian Andes.

Graphical Abstract

This figure illustrates the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Peruvian Andes, as determined by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), at both 1- and 12-month time scales. To better understand the characteristics and drivers of these droughts, SPI and SPEI were calculated using the ERA-5 reanalysis covering the period from 1940 to 2022. The Peruvian Andes was divided into six regions, as shown in this figure. The main results reveal that the frequency and intensity of droughts exhibit temporal variability throughout the study period, being stronger in the western side than in the eastern side of the Peruvian Andes. Moreover, positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, positive phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (region of Niño 4), and negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical South Atlantic are likely causes of most drought occurrences in the Peruvian highlands.