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<p>This study examines the influence of simultaneous drought and heatwave events on fire dynamics in the Brazilian Cerrado biome between 2012 and 2023. Monthly and annual analyses of fire radiative power (FRP), fire radiative energy (FRE), heatwaves, and droughts were carried out based on data from 172 meteorological stations. Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), while FRP data were derived from VIIRS sensors onboard the NOAA-20 and Suomi NPP satellites. Droughts were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1- and 6-month timescales. The results show that periods with higher heatwave occurrence coincided with increased fire activity, especially in September, which recorded the highest FRP (~ 10<sup>3</sup>&#xa0;MW/h), 1,346 heatwave events, and 1,825 heatwave days. FRE peaks were observed between July and October, particularly in July (~ 10⁹ MJ). The most intense drought conditions (SPI-1 and SPI-6) were concentrated in July and August. Statistical analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between heatwave frequency (CTX90) and FRP (r = 0.89), as well as negative correlations between FRP and SPI-1 (r = -0.47) and SPI-6 (r = -0.50). These results highlight the significant role of simultaneous extreme climatic events in fire dynamics and reinforce the importance of understanding these events to better assess and mitigate their impacts in the region.</p> Graphical abstract <p>The graphical abstract provides an overview of the study on the simultaneous impacts of drought and heatwaves on fire dynamics in the Brazilian Cerrado biome between 2012 and 2023. Monthly and annual analyses of Fire Radiative Power (FRP), Fire Radiative Energy (FRE), droughts, and heatwaves were conducted based on data from 172 meteorological stations. Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and FRP data were derived from VIIRS sensors onboard the NOAA-20 and Suomi NPP satellites. Drought conditions were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1- and 6-month scales. The results indicate that periods with the highest incidence of heatwaves coincided with more intense fire activity, especially in September, which recorded the highest FRP (~ 10<sup>3</sup>&#xa0;MW/h), 1,346 heatwave events, and 1,825 heatwave days. FRE peaks were observed between July and October, with a maximum in July (~ 10⁹ MJ). SPI-1 and SPI-6 revealed persistent dry conditions from May to October, particularly in July and August. In 2023, heatwaves had a key role in fire intensification, with record frequencies: 1,195 (CTX90pct) and 1,109 (CTN90pct) events, and durations of 940 and 740&#xa0;days, respectively. Statistical analysis demonstrated a strong positive correlation between heatwave frequency (CTX90) and FRP (r = 0.89), and negative correlations between FRP and SPI-1 (r = –0.47) and SPI-6 (r = –0.50). While the Amazon experienced a decline in deforestation in 2023, the Cerrado recorded the highest deforestation rate among Brazilian biomes. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the compound effects of extreme climate events and land-use changes to enhance monitoring and develop more effective mitigation strategies for ecosystems in the region.</p>

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Climate Extremes and Fire Behavior in the Brazilian Cerrado: A Multi-Years Assessment (2012–2023)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月25日

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  • Katyelle F. S. Bezerra,
  • Helber B. Gomes,
  • Janaíına P. Nascimento,
  • Hakki Baltaci,
  • Marisol Osman,
  • Maria Cristina L. Silva,
  • Thomás R. Ferreira,
  • Mayara Christine C. Lins,
  • Lucas Henrique S. Rocha,
  • Heliofábio B. Gomes,
  • Fabrício Daniel S. Silva,
  • Glauber L. Mariano

摘要

This study examines the influence of simultaneous drought and heatwave events on fire dynamics in the Brazilian Cerrado biome between 2012 and 2023. Monthly and annual analyses of fire radiative power (FRP), fire radiative energy (FRE), heatwaves, and droughts were carried out based on data from 172 meteorological stations. Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), while FRP data were derived from VIIRS sensors onboard the NOAA-20 and Suomi NPP satellites. Droughts were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1- and 6-month timescales. The results show that periods with higher heatwave occurrence coincided with increased fire activity, especially in September, which recorded the highest FRP (~ 103 MW/h), 1,346 heatwave events, and 1,825 heatwave days. FRE peaks were observed between July and October, particularly in July (~ 10⁹ MJ). The most intense drought conditions (SPI-1 and SPI-6) were concentrated in July and August. Statistical analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between heatwave frequency (CTX90) and FRP (r = 0.89), as well as negative correlations between FRP and SPI-1 (r = -0.47) and SPI-6 (r = -0.50). These results highlight the significant role of simultaneous extreme climatic events in fire dynamics and reinforce the importance of understanding these events to better assess and mitigate their impacts in the region.

Graphical abstract

The graphical abstract provides an overview of the study on the simultaneous impacts of drought and heatwaves on fire dynamics in the Brazilian Cerrado biome between 2012 and 2023. Monthly and annual analyses of Fire Radiative Power (FRP), Fire Radiative Energy (FRE), droughts, and heatwaves were conducted based on data from 172 meteorological stations. Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and FRP data were derived from VIIRS sensors onboard the NOAA-20 and Suomi NPP satellites. Drought conditions were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1- and 6-month scales. The results indicate that periods with the highest incidence of heatwaves coincided with more intense fire activity, especially in September, which recorded the highest FRP (~ 103 MW/h), 1,346 heatwave events, and 1,825 heatwave days. FRE peaks were observed between July and October, with a maximum in July (~ 10⁹ MJ). SPI-1 and SPI-6 revealed persistent dry conditions from May to October, particularly in July and August. In 2023, heatwaves had a key role in fire intensification, with record frequencies: 1,195 (CTX90pct) and 1,109 (CTN90pct) events, and durations of 940 and 740 days, respectively. Statistical analysis demonstrated a strong positive correlation between heatwave frequency (CTX90) and FRP (r = 0.89), and negative correlations between FRP and SPI-1 (r = –0.47) and SPI-6 (r = –0.50). While the Amazon experienced a decline in deforestation in 2023, the Cerrado recorded the highest deforestation rate among Brazilian biomes. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the compound effects of extreme climate events and land-use changes to enhance monitoring and develop more effective mitigation strategies for ecosystems in the region.