Scholarlink

<p>Understanding the spatial variability of drought in mountainous coastal environments is crucial for anticipating hydrological stress and improving drought preparedness. This study examines the influence of static topographic factors, including elevation, slope, and proximity to the coastline, on seasonal drought patterns in the Western Rif region of Morocco over 40 years (1980–2019). Multiple linear regression models for autumn, winter, and spring were implemented using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on a seasonal scale (SPI-III) from 17 meteorological stations. Topographic data were extracted from a 30&#xa0;m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model using GIS-based processing tools. Regression diagnostics, including variance inflation factor (VIF), Shapiro–Wilk test, and Breusch–Pagan test, confirmed the statistical validity of the models. The results reveal that distance to coast is the most influential variable, with statistically significant effects during winter (<i>p</i> = 0.003), reflecting the inland attenuation of maritime air masses and orographic enhancement. In contrast, models for autumn and spring displayed weak predictive capacity, suggesting the dominance of convective or stochastic mechanisms during transitional seasons. Elevation exhibited limited explanatory power, while slope was consistently non-significant. This study emphasizes the conditional nature of topographic control on drought and highlights the importance of seasonally adaptive frameworks for spatial drought modeling. The integration of physiographic metrics within early warning systems could enhance climate resilience strategies in Mediterranean mountain regions. Future research should incorporate dynamic climatic indices and non-linear modeling approaches better to capture the complexity of rainfall–topography interactions.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>The graphical abstract provides a concise and visually appealing summary of the research, allowing readers to quickly grasp the study’s scope, methodology, and main findings without reading the full article. This figure illustrates a spatial analysis of seasonal drought variability in the Western Rif region of Morocco over the period 1980–2019. The upper-left panel outlines the study area and key methodological steps, including seasonal SPI-3 transformation and topographic variable extraction. The left section details the multiple linear regression (MLR) framework, encompassing model assumptions such as AQmulticollinearity, normality, and homoscedasticity. The central results panels show statistically significant relationships between SPI-3 and topographic features (elevation, slope, distance to coast), differentiated by season. Notably, distance to the coast emerges as the dominant factor influencing winter drought intensity, reflecting the inland attenuation of Atlantic moisture. In contrast, autumn and spring drought patterns exhibit weaker associations with topography, likely due to convective or dynamic drivers. The lower-right section presents the model performance and highlights adaptation strategies, including the integration of physiographic information into early warning systems and localized drought planning. Overall, this graphical abstract encapsulates the methodological rigor and applied relevance of the study, offering clear visual cues for targeted drought management in Mediterranean mountain landscapes.</p> <p></p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Topographic Influences on Seasonal Drought in Morocco’s Western Rif: Insights from a 40-Year SPI-3 Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月16日

查看全文
  • Ayoub Al Mashoudi,
  • Mohamed Arraji,
  • Abla Belhaj,
  • Adil Akallouch,
  • Mohammed Chrif El Idrissi,
  • Houda Sahnoun,
  • Rabin Chakrabortty,
  • Tarig Ali,
  • Jerry Wayne Nave

摘要

Understanding the spatial variability of drought in mountainous coastal environments is crucial for anticipating hydrological stress and improving drought preparedness. This study examines the influence of static topographic factors, including elevation, slope, and proximity to the coastline, on seasonal drought patterns in the Western Rif region of Morocco over 40 years (1980–2019). Multiple linear regression models for autumn, winter, and spring were implemented using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on a seasonal scale (SPI-III) from 17 meteorological stations. Topographic data were extracted from a 30 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model using GIS-based processing tools. Regression diagnostics, including variance inflation factor (VIF), Shapiro–Wilk test, and Breusch–Pagan test, confirmed the statistical validity of the models. The results reveal that distance to coast is the most influential variable, with statistically significant effects during winter (p = 0.003), reflecting the inland attenuation of maritime air masses and orographic enhancement. In contrast, models for autumn and spring displayed weak predictive capacity, suggesting the dominance of convective or stochastic mechanisms during transitional seasons. Elevation exhibited limited explanatory power, while slope was consistently non-significant. This study emphasizes the conditional nature of topographic control on drought and highlights the importance of seasonally adaptive frameworks for spatial drought modeling. The integration of physiographic metrics within early warning systems could enhance climate resilience strategies in Mediterranean mountain regions. Future research should incorporate dynamic climatic indices and non-linear modeling approaches better to capture the complexity of rainfall–topography interactions.

Graphical Abstract

The graphical abstract provides a concise and visually appealing summary of the research, allowing readers to quickly grasp the study’s scope, methodology, and main findings without reading the full article. This figure illustrates a spatial analysis of seasonal drought variability in the Western Rif region of Morocco over the period 1980–2019. The upper-left panel outlines the study area and key methodological steps, including seasonal SPI-3 transformation and topographic variable extraction. The left section details the multiple linear regression (MLR) framework, encompassing model assumptions such as AQmulticollinearity, normality, and homoscedasticity. The central results panels show statistically significant relationships between SPI-3 and topographic features (elevation, slope, distance to coast), differentiated by season. Notably, distance to the coast emerges as the dominant factor influencing winter drought intensity, reflecting the inland attenuation of Atlantic moisture. In contrast, autumn and spring drought patterns exhibit weaker associations with topography, likely due to convective or dynamic drivers. The lower-right section presents the model performance and highlights adaptation strategies, including the integration of physiographic information into early warning systems and localized drought planning. Overall, this graphical abstract encapsulates the methodological rigor and applied relevance of the study, offering clear visual cues for targeted drought management in Mediterranean mountain landscapes.