Scholarlink

<p>Rapid urbanization in Africa exacerbates vegetation loss, resulting in ecological degradation and rising land surface temperature (LST), and thereby intensifying heat stress and ecological imbalance. This study analyzes spatiotemporal patterns of urban vegetation and LST across 151 African cities (2003–2023) using MODIS-derived LST and NDVI data. To assess climate-specific trends, cities were stratified into arid, temperate, and tropical zones. We used Pearson correlation and Random Forest regression to evaluate NDVI-LST relationships and further explored the impacts of potential topographic, climatic, and socioeconomic factors. Results reveal a continent-wide warming trend, with tropical cities experiencing the sharpest temperature increases and arid regions facing extreme LSTs (&gt; 45&#xa0;°C in 45% of the cities). Vegetation declined significantly, with NDVI &gt; 0.5 in only 2% of cities by 2023. Strong inverse NDVI-LST correlations were observed, the strongest in tropical zones (*r* = -0.767) and the weakest in arid regions (*r* = -0.461), underscoring vegetation’s cooling role. Random Forest model identified soil moisture (17–19% influence) and NDVI (16–19%) as dominant LST drivers with some regional variations. Temperate zones showed enhanced vegetation cooling effects over time, while arid regions exhibited a sparse trend in capacity. The findings highlight urbanization-driven thermal risks and the critical need for green infrastructure tailored to climatic contexts to enhance resilience in Africa’s rapidly expanding urban landscapes.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>This graphical abstract summarizes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban vegetation loss and land surface temperature (LST) intensification in African cities from 2003 to 2023. It highlights the strong negative correlation between NDVI and LST, identifies soil moisture as a key influencing factor, and underscores regional variations in warming trends.</p> <p></p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Urban Heat Intensification and Vegetation Loss in African Cities: A Spatiotemporal Analysis (2003–2023)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月8日

查看全文
  • Jean Pierre Muhoza,
  • Yuguo Qian,
  • Weiqi Zhou

摘要

Rapid urbanization in Africa exacerbates vegetation loss, resulting in ecological degradation and rising land surface temperature (LST), and thereby intensifying heat stress and ecological imbalance. This study analyzes spatiotemporal patterns of urban vegetation and LST across 151 African cities (2003–2023) using MODIS-derived LST and NDVI data. To assess climate-specific trends, cities were stratified into arid, temperate, and tropical zones. We used Pearson correlation and Random Forest regression to evaluate NDVI-LST relationships and further explored the impacts of potential topographic, climatic, and socioeconomic factors. Results reveal a continent-wide warming trend, with tropical cities experiencing the sharpest temperature increases and arid regions facing extreme LSTs (> 45 °C in 45% of the cities). Vegetation declined significantly, with NDVI > 0.5 in only 2% of cities by 2023. Strong inverse NDVI-LST correlations were observed, the strongest in tropical zones (*r* = -0.767) and the weakest in arid regions (*r* = -0.461), underscoring vegetation’s cooling role. Random Forest model identified soil moisture (17–19% influence) and NDVI (16–19%) as dominant LST drivers with some regional variations. Temperate zones showed enhanced vegetation cooling effects over time, while arid regions exhibited a sparse trend in capacity. The findings highlight urbanization-driven thermal risks and the critical need for green infrastructure tailored to climatic contexts to enhance resilience in Africa’s rapidly expanding urban landscapes.

Graphical Abstract

This graphical abstract summarizes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban vegetation loss and land surface temperature (LST) intensification in African cities from 2003 to 2023. It highlights the strong negative correlation between NDVI and LST, identifies soil moisture as a key influencing factor, and underscores regional variations in warming trends.